TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x80a0…5708

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
188
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 57 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT8125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 81 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$318.95
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,304Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,303.52
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$663Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$662.78
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,625Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+189.2%+$3,074.99
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+74.8%+$70.71
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+1,077.4%+$3,837.16
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$635Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$634.99
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$5,266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,266.31
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$840Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$2,160
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$3,280
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$574Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+48.2%+$276.16
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$3,922Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+261.5%+$10,253.82
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$863Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+132.4%+$1,142.51
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20,843Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20,843.23
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,885Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,884.75
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$6,082Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,081.51
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$756Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$756.08
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$87
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,400
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,200
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,881Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,881.39
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$682Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$682
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Showing 25 of 81 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$415.29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$3,368Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,367.78
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$499Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+340.5%+$1,700.6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$8,775Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+85.3%+$7,487.55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,620Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,620
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$703Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$703
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$7,554Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,554.41
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$5,082Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,081.73
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$9,164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,163.62
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,709Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,708.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$6,099Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+88.5%+$5,399.35
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11,597Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+121.9%+$14,136.87
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$255
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$57,322Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$28,371.52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$479.77
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14,622Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14,622.42
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,190.74
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18,709Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18,708.9
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,250.24
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$22,094Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22,094.01
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40,003Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+86.3%+$34,515.4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$6,435Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+99%+$6,367.5
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,475Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,475.06
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$19,790Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+319.9%+$63,307.97
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16,411Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$13,158.3
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,284.81
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+525%+$1,092.75
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$972Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$827.98
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$4,126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,126.39
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.63
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,832.78
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$362
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$802.5
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$377
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$920Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$919.97
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.79
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$2,960Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+221.5%+$6,555.2
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$884Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+81%+$716
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,793Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+65.6%+$1,176.5
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$432
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$82
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$125
UEFA Nations League: Spain vs. France (To Advance)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+79.4%+$324.7
All 24 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$4,908Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,908.43
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.86
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,110
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$700
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$915Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$915
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$423Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$423.42
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$20.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+733.3%+$440
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$610
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$66
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$171.13
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$330
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,212Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,211.57
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$301.61
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-39.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$56
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$112.76
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$188.67
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$319.82
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,796Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+242.3%+$6,772.9
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$273
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34.74
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+222.6%+$690
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.29
All 11 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick32cpaid+42.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$712Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$712.13
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$147.8
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$458Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+41.8%+$191.5
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$388Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+150%+$582.63
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$65.8
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$721Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$721.12
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,370Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+89.8%+$1,230
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$4,831Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+244.6%+$11,815.75
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$3,900Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+257.7%+$10,049.56
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+181.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$2,879.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25,731Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+92.8%+$23,886.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,316Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+69.3%+$2,296.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,440Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$560
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$507Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$506.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$423Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$422.91
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.