Us Politics · resolved market
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ed1d3981a2067c9a53364b00d4342e703026926615de49aec9bead2cb2f8393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,906,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,748,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,906,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,097 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 73c | 92,685$67,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,906.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked No | 2c | 83,623$2,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 42c | 70,489$29,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,853.29 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 33c | 63,257$20,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,797.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 3c | 57,117$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.35 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 9c | 43,576$4,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,040.99 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 75c | 39,000$29,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,618.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fed…981cbacked No | 1c | 34,654$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 42c | 33,120$13,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,789.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…ff2dbacked Yes | 27c | 24,093$6,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,594.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 38c | 21,170$8,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,041.09 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked No | 76c | 19,130$14,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,492.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 39c | 18,565$7,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,337.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed No | 10c | 18,323$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed No | 32c | 17,733$5,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,709.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…3b76backed No | 7c | 16,199$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 64c | 16,014$10,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,181.66 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…13cfbacked No | 8c | 15,905$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 51c | 15,576$7,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,911.76 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 43c | 15,000$6,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,624.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 73c | 14,755$10,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,787.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 40c | 14,491$5,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,766.77 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 17c | 14,413$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,463.67 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 44c | 14,205$6,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,886.34 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 44c | 13,900$6,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,727.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes | 56c | 13,056$7,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,799.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 33c | 12,608$4,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,496.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 42c | 12,101$5,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,970.23 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 64c | 11,556$7,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,348.32 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 9c | 11,434$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.03 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 60c | 11,421$6,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,898.6 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…290ebacked No | 9c | 11,277$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef76…eeeabacked Yes | 30c | 10,516$3,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,343.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 42c | 10,512$4,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,129.89 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 10,240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9f1bbacked No | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 57c | 9,832$5,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,182.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 10c | 9,781$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.92 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…16ecbacked No | 12c | 9,347$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…c88dbacked No | 44c | 9,278$4,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,082.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…9514backed Yes | 47c | 8,494$4,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,486.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…4faebacked No | 64c | 8,181$5,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,272.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab71…be8cbacked Yes | 68c | 8,105$5,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,573.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked No | 8c | 8,027$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…492fbacked Yes | 39c | 7,780$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,739.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…faa7backed No | 69c | 7,738$5,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,305.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…6ca6backed No | 13c | 7,694$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes | 35c | 7,440$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,833.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 36c | 7,305$2,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,662.31 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 41c | 7,103$2,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.46 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 7c | 7,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 10c | 6,822$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,123.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…6dd7backed No | 6c | 6,600$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 41c | 6,500$2,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c17…83c8backed No | 63c | 6,266$3,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,975.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99db…c70fbacked No | 37c | 5,922$2,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…6deabacked No | 8c | 5,908$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…e7d1backed No | 4c | 5,792$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 33c | 5,768$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,862.1 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked No | 57c | 5,693$3,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,244.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed No | 12c | 5,565$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed No | 61c | 5,561$3,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,406.2 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…29b1backed No | 9c | 5,556$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 47c | 5,554$2,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,591 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked No | 13c | 5,500$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…e358backed No | 58c | 5,156$2,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 5,020$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.9 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 12c | 5,019$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.22 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 8c | 5,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…a144backed No | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed No | 6c | 4,965$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.9 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…5471backed No | 3c | 4,886$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…6bdebacked No | 53c | 4,861$2,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,576.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…d463backed No | 61c | 4,694$2,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,844.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…f1cdbacked Yes | 61c | 4,570$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 36c | 4,482$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,885.49 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 59c | 4,463$2,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,653.3 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 3c | 4,369$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 31c | 4,338$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.3 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2508…140ebacked Yes | 60c | 4,193$2,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes | 34c | 4,005$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,645.66 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 14c | 4,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73eb…7d73backed No | 6c | 4,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,943$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da0…3c77backed No | 58c | 3,861$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95a…aee7backed Yes | 32c | 3,809$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5143…81f5backed No | 6c | 3,798$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839b…0361backed Yes | 29c | 3,775$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,676.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 45c | 3,774$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked No | 6c | 3,767$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…c666backed Yes | 25c | 3,736$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,814.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +305.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Yes | 35c | 3,697$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe56c…fcecbacked No | 6c | 3,693$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 32c | 3,666$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,488.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 17c | 3,593$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.17 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…8efcbacked No | 75c | 3,553$2,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,677.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 19c | 3,523$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,863.38 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 70c | 3,521$2,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.63 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…fd20backed Yes | 66c | 3,502$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 10c | 3,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?this page
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10?No won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?No won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?Yes won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.