Us Politics · resolved market
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x686d955f00b0a27a807d3fe4bebca3ef6f81bf25699a967d4156393eeb6c0ee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,315,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,249,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,315,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 779 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked No | 76c | 59,130$44,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,270.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 9c | 54,218$4,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,853.55 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 22c | 42,089$9,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,130.79 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 22c | 35,780$7,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,835.64 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes | 34c | 29,880$10,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,168.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…688fbacked No | 75c | 27,738$20,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,976.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…f51abacked Yes | 20c | 26,000$5,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,266.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d1…0bcdbacked Yes | 4c | 25,957$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 21c | 24,265$5,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,009.5 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 13c | 20,953$2,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.66 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…e07cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,459$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0793…7cfabacked No | 60c | 19,177$11,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,647.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…492fbacked Yes | 13c | 17,984$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 66c | 17,825$11,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,014.9 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 16,162$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.64 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 18c | 15,572$2,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…7774backed No | 71c | 12,637$8,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,722.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 8c | 12,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed No | 50c | 12,000$5,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,020 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 11,810$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.38 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…cdbfbacked No | 77c | 11,037$8,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 37c | 10,758$3,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,976.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 21c | 10,701$2,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,277.19 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2704…2427backed Yes | 0c | 10,407$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 19c | 9,670$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 31c | 8,932$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da8…4c90backed Yes | 39c | 8,674$3,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,395.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…57fdbacked No | 66c | 8,463$5,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 26c | 8,359$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.3 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 34c | 7,973$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 21c | 7,753$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.52 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 7,581$5,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.92 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 77c | 7,031$5,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.36 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 30c | 6,768$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.56 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…8e8dbacked Yes | 45c | 6,628$2,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,988.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 23c | 6,567$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.85 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 54c | 6,415$3,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,477.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…1cf3backed Yes | 48c | 6,000$2,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,859.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 14c | 5,883$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.35 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,668$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.5 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 14c | 5,216$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.32 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab71…be8cbacked No | 80c | 5,130$4,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 31c | 4,869$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42fa…4165backed No | 69c | 4,710$3,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 32c | 4,348$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 4,215$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.94 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b3…e7e1backed Yes | 16c | 4,153$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 72c | 4,053$2,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,049$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.71 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 3,948$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.73 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked No | 79c | 3,822$3,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4c…4fc2backed Yes | 53c | 3,790$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 10c | 3,650$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.49 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 25c | 3,573$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.63 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…ed3cbacked No | 72c | 3,500$2,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,408$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…327fbacked No | 67c | 3,150$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…06d5backed No | 54c | 3,129$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…7f9dbacked No | 67c | 3,047$2,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 17c | 3,013$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 23c | 2,988$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.11 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 14c | 2,958$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.94 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…0cbcbacked No | 68c | 2,957$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 14c | 2,893$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.01 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…db3abacked Yes | 24c | 2,816$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0a…8533backed No | 70c | 2,793$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +323.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked No | 63c | 2,611$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb398…d1cdbacked Yes | 36c | 2,582$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked No | 54c | 2,571$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,524$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 13c | 2,500$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…3ea6backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 6c | 2,499$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.91 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f89…d6febacked No | 63c | 2,478$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 2,473$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.52 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 73c | 2,408$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.01 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…a79abacked Yes | 6c | 2,402$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 51c | 2,355$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.29 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…6dd7backed Yes | 1c | 2,324$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 71c | 2,293$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.56 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 38c | 2,265$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.77 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 2,236$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.64 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…e741backed Yes | 26c | 2,235$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…960bbacked No | 66c | 2,220$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…f541backed Yes | 23c | 2,178$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 25c | 2,129$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.71 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0b…2e45backed No | 77c | 2,090$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 23c | 2,065$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.67 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 74c | 2,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…cca9backed No | 51c | 1,975$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…3b76backed No | 64c | 1,926$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 13c | 1,909$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.88 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 22c | 1,898$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.64 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…a779backed No | 73c | 1,895$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a63…2e23backed Yes | 7c | 1,881$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 28c | 1,850$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.99 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,843$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.38 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…862cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,823$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecd…f575backed Yes | 6c | 1,770$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?this page
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10?No won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?Yes won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?Yes won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.