Us Politics · resolved market
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ac0c5a46febb6c43c081fa6902b47e23e37dbc88ae5aabf450278f3c530f29d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $215,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1371…fd8ebacked Yes | 2c | 18,145$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 1c | 12,248$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b3…e7e1backed Yes | 1c | 9,400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…1824backed Yes | 3c | 7,718$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6eb…67f9backed Yes | 0c | 7,206$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a4…2969backed Yes | 2c | 4,127$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 4,105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c2…c335backed Yes | 1c | 3,609$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 4c | 2,742$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 3c | 2,578$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,350$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf071…cbcbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,087$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d6…4da7backed Yes | 2c | 1,701$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715c…531bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,614$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…31b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,426$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,286$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Yes | 1c | 1,135$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,084$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…40d1backed Yes | 2c | 1,004$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…0fa8backed Yes | 2c | 952.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823e…12b5backed Yes | 2c | 856$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 1c | 823.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…e504backed Yes | 3c | 640.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…3015backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…d8dcbacked Yes | 3c | 597.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…6849backed Yes | 2c | 594.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd821…e681backed Yes | 3c | 566$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…39b1backed Yes | 3c | 536.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ee…700bbacked Yes | 6c | 536.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…a79abacked Yes | 2c | 534.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…d9ccbacked Yes | 2c | 404$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…38cabacked Yes | 3c | 397.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc32d…02c2backed Yes | 4c | 297.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0582…90a7backed Yes | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 60c | 52.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10?this page
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?No won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?Yes won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?Yes won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.