Us Politics · resolved market
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaa1605975653c8318e6f12a95631d2643cfbfe217e441daa6a7e9fbd65124f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $724,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $754,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $724,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 410 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0b8…13a2backed No | 17c | 25,988$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 74c | 21,015$15,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,466.18 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 0c | 20,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe56c…fcecbacked No | 15c | 17,910$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…16ecbacked No | 24c | 17,413$4,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,262.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed No | 11c | 16,772$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed No | 29c | 15,700$4,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,552.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…9569backed No | 7c | 14,474$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 72c | 11,495$8,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,179.29 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…48e4backed Yes | 80c | 11,000$8,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed No | 26c | 11,000$2,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,909.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…218cbacked No | 18c | 9,002$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed No | 12c | 8,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 21c | 7,975$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.72 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 9c | 7,910$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.05 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked No | 14c | 6,668$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fed…981cbacked No | 2c | 6,337$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0793…7cfabacked No | 12c | 6,211$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…3b76backed No | 9c | 5,233$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…e7d1backed No | 6c | 5,070$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 8c | 5,008$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.91 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…304dbacked No | 19c | 4,999$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…1f8abacked No | 8c | 4,397$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…d08dbacked No | 15c | 4,234$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…faa7backed No | 16c | 4,215$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 74c | 4,210$3,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…d707backed No | 11c | 4,177$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 24c | 4,110$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked No | 14c | 3,905$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73eb…7d73backed No | 13c | 3,846$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 78c | 3,786$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.86 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 78c | 3,682$2,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.58 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65e2…be2cbacked No | 11c | 3,500$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked No | 12c | 3,400$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 3,196$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 1c | 3,102$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 12c | 3,100$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ce…b393backed No | 11c | 2,845$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 4c | 2,805$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 14c | 2,756$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.04 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…29b1backed No | 15c | 2,722$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 76c | 2,697$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3a7ebacked No | 25c | 2,684$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6736…058cbacked No | 12c | 2,566$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 79c | 2,541$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.86 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 18c | 2,500$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 74c | 2,426$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.08 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…6deabacked No | 14c | 2,416$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…f400backed No | 16c | 2,132$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed No | 15c | 2,100$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 11c | 2,091$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.74 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…a973backed No | 1c | 2,076$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…78c9backed No | 4c | 2,071$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…0f4abacked No | 17c | 2,005$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…4437backed No | 17c | 2,000$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…e399backed No | 10c | 1,971$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc4…9d29backed No | 7c | 1,925$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…8355backed No | 12c | 1,713$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…9398backed No | 18c | 1,667$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…67eabacked No | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 10c | 1,657$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4029…27a1backed No | 17c | 1,614$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 8c | 1,600$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…6af8backed No | 15c | 1,573$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,524$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.41 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 24c | 1,501$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 5c | 1,500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b25…1910backed No | 15c | 1,497$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf2…d0a9backed No | 17c | 1,493$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…839bbacked No | 5c | 1,465$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…7f8abacked No | 18c | 1,445$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b0…e5f9backed No | 11c | 1,432$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…d571backed No | 6c | 1,367$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…5862backed No | 26c | 1,362$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…754ebacked No | 16c | 1,308$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 13c | 1,259$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.14 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…c0d2backed No | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 14c | 1,242$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.51 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 30c | 1,240$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed No | 16c | 1,229$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…6ff9backed No | 3c | 1,216$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 3c | 1,199$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…8d20backed No | 20c | 1,192$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 79c | 1,166$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.26 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…cbf5backed No | 14c | 1,133$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 24c | 1,128$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.71 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a63…2e23backed No | 6c | 1,107$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…2370backed No | 9c | 1,081$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes | 72c | 1,051$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 28c | 1,037$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.5 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e38…8fbdbacked No | 28c | 1,002$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…99c0backed No | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c76…f344backed No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…42efbacked No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…46f2backed No | 13c | 1,000$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…a17cbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?this page
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10?No won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?No won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?Yes won
- Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.