TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x66b8…b5f0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category AI at 52 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$228.47
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$999.65
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,737Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.4%+$440.58
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,023Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,023
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,400
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,300
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,496Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,496.03
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$7,666Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+270%+$20,701.61
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,833.08
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,173.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11,222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11,222.41
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$18,104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+102.7%+$18,596.75
Khamenei seen in public before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,300
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$170.07
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18,747Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+67.7%+$12,683.94
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$284.8
Israel military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,954Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+51.1%+$998.22
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13,021Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+94.8%+$12,340.57
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-77.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22,601Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+148.9%+$33,645.74
Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,000
Wimbledon Final – Anisimova vs. Swiatekbacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$4,450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,450
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36,689Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$36,688.87
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Djokovic backed Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15,352Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,352.45
Wimbledon: Bencic vs. Swiatek (W) backed Bencic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$10,399.98
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,716Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,715.74
Will Frances Tiafoe win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$336.41
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$825Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$825.35
Will Lorenzo Musetti win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$423Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$423.44
Will Holger Rune win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Sep 30, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+258.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Gukesh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,006Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST+38.9%+$391.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$6,614Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$6,613.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$412.98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.