AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf3f64e73e8298155b57887f0e56ad38a9b9d43753f06ba16a35ec5af0344896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf737…37aabacked No | 10c | 10,352$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 8,865$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…74abbacked No | 8c | 3,237$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 77c | 2,162$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.63 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 27c | 1,793$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.21 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x205e…bf9bbacked No | 6c | 1,769$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 7c | 1,251$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 699.02$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.72 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…5424backed No | 39c | 664.65$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 39c | 594.94$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.8 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…a3f4backed No | 5c | 498.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 473.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 47c | 426.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.61 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1123…2caebacked Yes | 43c | 370.11$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 366.6$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 65c | 349.38$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 13c | 330.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6e…984fbacked No | 6c | 328.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8676…79abbacked No | 6c | 317.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 30c | 301.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.93 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 36c | 300$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 6c | 291.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 270.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 17c | 252.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…df45backed No | 6c | 250.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…dd60backed Yes | 57c | 234.23$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 55c | 227$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…23f7backed Yes | 43c | 220$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 75c | 202.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed No | 15c | 196.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed No | 6c | 192.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf65c…53debacked No | 9c | 190.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed No | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 31c | 175$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed No | 67c | 155.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +258.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 62c | 141.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5c…a435backed Yes | 38c | 132.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 60c | 125.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 37c | 121.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed Yes | 40c | 121.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 111.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…7e8abacked Yes | 71c | 108.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f0…6c5dbacked Yes | 37c | 108.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 39c | 107.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 43c | 105.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 61c | 104.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…e052backed Yes | 57c | 93.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 62c | 88.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 26c | 88.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 67c | 88.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 26c | 71.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 48c | 70.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 63c | 67.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 38c | 64.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 79c | 61.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cae…d35bbacked Yes | 37c | 58.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +442.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3857backed Yes | 52c | 57.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…956abacked Yes | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +61%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…b623backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30?this page
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Meta have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.