AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e03d37fac78f1f17b3e9b95df4cce1b96d475d91dae1ff3f27d927cd84c60bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 9,139$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…37aabacked Yes | 2c | 2,958$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,305$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c1…77f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,513$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,452$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…550dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,366$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,286$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 2c | 1,068$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ed…09cebacked Yes | 1c | 866.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes | 1c | 848.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 669.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…edd1backed Yes | 4c | 329.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 5c | 299.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on September 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Meta have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.