TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0d56…191c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Champions League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 54 out of 100; worst Movies at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT ads by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.26
OpenAI acquired in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.96
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+27.3%+$150
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$723Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$723.23
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$297
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+170.1%+$445.18
Will Sam Altman say "Trump" during TBPN appearance on October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$114
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$108
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$176
Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.76
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-80.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+74.5%+$670.92
Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$120
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$200
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$300
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$200
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$200
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$200
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-81.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$870
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SBF tweet again by Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+150%+$26.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$800
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyesbacked Reyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USC vs. Illinoisbacked USC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$700
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.