AI · resolved market
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e576390d1e1279fbefde42d24d192817787bd57ed1f3245a780dcf9894f6976
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,626,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,837,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,626,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,333 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 18c | 477,000$84,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,287.23 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed Yes | 79c | 166,978$131,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,369.68 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 78c | 157,741$123,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,583.28 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 20c | 126,831$25,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,711.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…7ed6backed Yes | 77c | 105,658$81,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,958.43 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 44cpaid | +229.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed No | 24c | 105,594$25,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,252.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…1d86backed No | 18c | 98,051$17,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,372.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed No | 26c | 82,262$21,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,746.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 79c | 81,245$64,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,820.77 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed No | 21c | 64,034$13,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,384.92 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 20c | 60,110$12,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,252.39 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066d…e6e6backed Yes | 75c | 56,980$42,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,334.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes | 77c | 54,082$41,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,173.08 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 12c | 53,826$6,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,448.49 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 19c | 50,167$9,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,429.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…9527backed No | 27c | 47,818$12,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,775.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…9495backed No | 7c | 47,351$3,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,284.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 12c | 46,330$5,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,783.12 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…f558backed Yes | 80c | 43,054$34,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,660.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8563…f21ebacked Yes | 73c | 42,815$31,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,383.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 24c | 36,941$8,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,712.21 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…5075backed No | 7c | 36,529$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,557 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed No | 9c | 36,301$3,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,394.07 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 80c | 35,889$28,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,314.82 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc60…ffacbacked Yes | 80c | 35,808$28,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,253.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 78c | 34,347$26,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,544.29 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked No | 21c | 33,083$6,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,998.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 10c | 32,265$3,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,382.53 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…e8f5backed Yes | 77c | 31,288$24,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,110.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 22c | 30,588$6,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,634.72 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc728…43babacked No | 33c | 29,684$9,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,797.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6970…684abacked No | 28c | 28,938$8,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,206.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 72c | 28,278$20,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,935.57 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed No | 21c | 28,085$5,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,888.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed Yes | 74c | 26,299$19,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,769.05 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 21c | 25,387$5,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,443.88 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…3b61backed No | 33c | 25,336$8,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,351.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked No | 29c | 25,001$7,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,346.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed No | 25c | 24,982$6,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,246.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768d…5eeabacked No | 20c | 23,938$4,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,670.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 6c | 23,766$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.58 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d3…7907backed Yes | 71c | 23,584$16,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,731.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba2…632cbacked Yes | 79c | 22,709$18,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,707.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…3ababacked Yes | 74c | 22,070$16,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,629.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked No | 21c | 20,780$4,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9f…55bcbacked Yes | 80c | 18,167$14,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,642.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…cfe2backed No | 18c | 18,090$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…5eefbacked No | 19c | 17,500$3,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,411.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…c416backed Yes | 73c | 17,434$12,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,788.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3343…fec8backed Yes | 72c | 16,738$12,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,676.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 76c | 16,316$12,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,896.46 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 78c | 16,306$12,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,652.22 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 79c | 16,026$12,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,354.49 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ab…6473backed Yes | 73c | 15,676$11,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,213.51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f19…cba0backed Yes | 76c | 15,594$11,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,743.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb0…72fcbacked Yes | 73c | 13,542$9,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,601.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…31aabacked Yes | 80c | 13,037$10,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,611.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 23c | 12,359$2,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,857.38 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…c092backed Yes | 74c | 12,162$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,161.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…ee7bbacked No | 2c | 11,564$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…fffcbacked Yes | 73c | 11,506$8,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,162.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked No | 16c | 11,000$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7084…4bd6backed Yes | 75c | 10,992$8,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 74c | 10,707$7,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,797.93 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 13c | 10,385$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.7 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91fa…9dffbacked No | 26c | 10,244$2,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ba…e4cbbacked Yes | 79c | 10,208$8,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…cc80backed No | 17c | 10,100$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528e…1d21backed No | 25c | 10,000$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed No | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed No | 22c | 10,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.99 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 19c | 10,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.98 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…7054backed Yes | 73c | 9,120$6,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 20c | 9,084$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.42 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 28c | 8,816$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…371cbacked No | 11c | 8,784$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…6c41backed No | 30c | 8,679$2,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,606.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 27c | 8,470$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.05 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked No | 3c | 8,143$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 28c | 8,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.99 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 20c | 7,775$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.86 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…3bbdbacked Yes | 69c | 7,767$5,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,407.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08f…9ecfbacked No | 7c | 7,730$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes | 77c | 7,715$5,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed No | 9c | 7,650$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858f…9b6ebacked Yes | 72c | 7,567$5,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…f119backed No | 21c | 7,559$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a29…46e7backed No | 1c | 7,416$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 12c | 7,213$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 76c | 6,900$5,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24a…bafebacked No | 16c | 6,750$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed No | 30c | 6,600$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.97 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 23c | 6,523$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed No | 15c | 6,515$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.07 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 6,400$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked No | 15c | 6,199$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…dc1bbacked No | 24c | 6,144$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed No | 0c | 6,060$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…644ebacked Yes | 78c | 6,037$4,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 77c | 6,000$4,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?this page
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?Yes won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?No won
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.