TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc6dd…4b9f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
258
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: World Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 58 out of 100; worst AI at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT7946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 79 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$486.7
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$8,785Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$2,485.19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$27,165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27,164.66
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$98,179Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$45,531.88
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$4,129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,129
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$7,108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+82.7%+$5,878.86
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,542Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+52%+$1,321.31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,961Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,960.88
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$45,720Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45,720.48
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$2,150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,150
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$44,279Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$44,278.69
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+1,983.3%+$952
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,198Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+372.5%+$4,461.98
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.48
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$141.26
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$28,722Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$14,560.42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11,887Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11,887.42
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$8,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,008.81
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13,584Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,584.44
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$6,514Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+101.9%+$6,640.71
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$412.9
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$3,701Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,700.81
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.52
Showing 25 of 79 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT6737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 67 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grok 4.4 released by July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,614Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,613.78
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$679.99
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$7,976Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,976.38
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,114Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$1,577.19
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+74.8%+$155.03
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.92
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.41
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11,471Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$4,665.51
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20,883Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+60%+$12,532.56
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$666Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+52%+$346.57
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,366Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+30%+$1,009.54
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$13,167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,167.26
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$649.95
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$609Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$609.33
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,031.95
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12,227Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+33.7%+$4,117.4
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21,011Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+70.8%+$14,885.24
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$4,383Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,383.41
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$625Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$625.45
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12,827Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+65.2%+$8,368.13
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$8,256Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+46.2%+$3,817.44
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.22
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.37
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$801Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$801.27
Showing 25 of 67 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.12
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$470
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+229.6%+$64.84
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,349Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+110.3%+$1,488.65
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+402.5%+$64.08
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+145.3%+$278.4
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,498Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$1,498.39
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+112.9%+$68.88
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,347Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+51.3%+$1,715.49
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,482Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,482.02
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,794Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+39.5%+$1,103.34
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$63.35
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$162.55
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$824Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$824.2
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,771Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+50.9%+$1,409.54
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$386Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$135.46
Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.1
Will Trump release more Epstein files before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+31.8%+$102.56
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$8,602Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+41.5%+$3,572.82
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.18
Will Elon apologize to Trump before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+25%+$20
All 21 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,805Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+41%+$1,150.34
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$143,425Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+28.6%+$41,014.39
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20,737Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$6,818.97
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$16,396Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4,898.08
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12,886Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$4,197.64
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+62.7%+$173.35
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,668Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+36.9%+$1,353.69
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$3,375Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+197.3%+$6,657
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20,761Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20,761.17
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12,769Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+47.1%+$6,007.98
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$6,559Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+56.5%+$3,703.35
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$289
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.17
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$641Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$641.24
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16,709Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+26.2%+$4,370.37
Will SPOLU get less than 17% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$235.16
North Korea missile test by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,042Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,041.64
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$4,526Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+210%+$9,505.19
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-77.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,203Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$316.37
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.34
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.94
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.05
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$55.85
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$52.9
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$549Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$548.76
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$27,864Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+25.1%+$6,994.54
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$481.35
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$123.69
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$204.09
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,815Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$2,543.13
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,646Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,646.04
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$3,522Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$1,917.7
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$10,001Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$4,181.29
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$8,010Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+31.2%+$2,500.82
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$5,762Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+28.2%+$1,623.78
Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$185.73
Will Zohran Mamdani not win the 2025 New York City mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$450.92
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$375.78
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$16,243Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+42.1%+$6,830.06
All 10 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,441Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,441.44
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$6,310Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+44.5%+$2,809.2
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,513Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$3,242.53
All 3 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vanderbilt vs. Tennesseebacked Vanderbilt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+81.8%+$450
Missouri vs. Vanderbiltbacked Vanderbilt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+83.4%+$249.18
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+339.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oatly Group (OTLY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+339.1%+$386.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$6,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$3,199.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,278Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$529
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FaZe (BO1)backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$19.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$11.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$410.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.