Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe14e8acc91b1e1448cf5b8ecb50215765bc023e6609d16d802174d5a407d17d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 3c | 12,074$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.17 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…9a00backed No | 4c | 9,444$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 8,900$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 74c | 4,059$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 29c | 3,987$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.37 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 25c | 3,478$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…c218backed No | 29c | 2,930$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…b0e3backed No | 25c | 1,749$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 8c | 1,666$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 1c | 1,478$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 1,359$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 2c | 1,325$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 1,290$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.09 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 41c | 1,238$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 3c | 1,111$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 33c | 1,107$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 69c | 1,100$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 67c | 1,025$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 34c | 961$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 29c | 881.89$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 36c | 697.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 59c | 591.6$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.64 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 76c | 514.24$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.56 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 80c | 483.74$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 72c | 414.81$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 37c | 404.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x062a…51e4backed No | 25c | 404.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed No | 34c | 384.77$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.82 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +1,033.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 67c | 340$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…4ea4backed No | 34c | 319$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…81cebacked No | 26c | 311.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…8a0cbacked No | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 5c | 285$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 15c | 276.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 41c | 238$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…9f86backed Yes | 71c | 232.56$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5707…63e8backed No | 26c | 221.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 31c | 210.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 75c | 206.73$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 66c | 206.5$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…a4fcbacked Yes | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked No | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 74c | 196.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 17c | 171.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes | 66c | 170$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 29c | 168.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 144.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…411cbacked Yes | 73c | 139.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…dc76backed No | 24c | 131.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1c…6e03backed No | 16c | 122.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab8…2a81backed No | 25c | 117.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 23c | 115.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…406ebacked No | 22c | 114.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…1047backed No | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 106.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…ce65backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…23d8backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…7313backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2186…2948backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked No | 37c | 80.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…03dbbacked No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 40c | 70.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked No | 32c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b5…fadbbacked No | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 27c | 55.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fe…067dbacked No | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…8b94backed No | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…bda6backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0450backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 32c | 49.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…9c1ebacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…896ebacked No | 37c | 29.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9ff5backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9581…1232backed Yes | 77c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.