Us Politics · resolved market

Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad138937fc9ddc5bc32f5eaf6ee92e16bafe785113c91c6fa1cd2a4ab826f921

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $147,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $135,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,654 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5a21…9318backed No	55c	16,124$8,823 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,300.6	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+35%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	30c	12,459$3,772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,772.16	184	25%46 W · 138 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes	13c	8,261$1,081 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,081.13	126	30.2%38 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+105.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed No	72c	5,511$3,947 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,564.3	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.3wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+198.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes	66c	4,527$2,991 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,990.89	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	12c	4,303$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.17	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No	36c	3,158$1,123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,034.57	110	31.8%35 W · 75 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	19c	2,634$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.56	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed No	76c	2,537$1,919 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$618.51	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.19per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	7c	1,980$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.31	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes	28c	1,930$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.67	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cf1…4c08backed No	70c	1,797$1,264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$533.4	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	60cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No	68c	1,637$1,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$516.66	79	31.6%25 W · 54 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes	45c	1,608$731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$731.3	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes	2c	1,497$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.26	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	11c	1,294$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.86	110	10%11 W · 99 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes	31c	1,170$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.2	176	33%58 W · 118 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No	46c	1,046$478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$568.06	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes	2c	1,022$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes	28c	1,021$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.78	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-4.5wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No	33c	1,000$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$670	103	24.3%25 W · 78 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcac9…200bbacked No	72c	979.14$705 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.16	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed No	32c	975.46$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$658.81	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	13c	958.56$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.06	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed No	6c	900$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$850.5	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+123.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	27c	756.08$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.42	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfe70…eefabacked No	67c	687.18$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.77	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09da…6dffbacked Yes	61c	680$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.2	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	19c	665.59$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.59	149	35.6%53 W · 96 L	+6.3wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed No	46c	622$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.19	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No	72c	600$429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes	79c	554.96$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.98	109	50.5%55 W · 54 L	+12.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes	64c	550$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.61	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No	72c	539.42$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.83	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-4.6wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f65…fcddbacked Yes	13c	520$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes	75c	416$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.55	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+3.2wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	8c	384.25$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.65	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes	25c	379.73$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.93	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Yes	27c	373.43$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce4…36a6backed No	16c	367.83$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.99	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+102.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Yes	28c	361.72$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes	25c	354.97$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.05	113	36.3%41 W · 72 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes	11c	345.91$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.63	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked No	68c	335.34$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.2	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c7…3e93backed No	26c	332.49$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.68	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+3.2wins	+0.29per pick	25cpaid	+153.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x01c1…c7a9backed Yes	71c	328.62$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.32	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.3wins	-0.38per pick	55cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	37c	326.99$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.99	115	29.6%34 W · 81 L	-5.8wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	23c	316.77$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.52	94	3.2%3 W · 91 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	12cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	5c	312.89$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes	28c	302.74$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.11	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No	7c	300$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.9	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes	54c	300$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.9	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.8wins	-0.29per pick	52cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x255e…f6dcbacked No	16c	283$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$237.22	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+54.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee57…b2b6backed No	72c	271.19$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.07	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+2.0wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+42%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes	26c	263.74$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.13	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-23%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed No	36c	255.16$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.06	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b13…f125backed Yes	14c	238.9$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.68	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	39c	238.46$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.46	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	8c	219.69$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.27	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	34c	200$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.93	187	25.1%47 W · 140 L	+10.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	-14%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No	71c	200$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.9	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f1…9d49backed No	73c	190$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.4	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4712…b584backed Yes	28c	162.27$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes	53c	161.97$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.52	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes	77c	154.31$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.89	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	+102.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecd1…2b46backed Yes	25c	150$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.13	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed No	69c	145.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.22	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+75.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f27…d37ebacked Yes	35c	136.83$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.34	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Yes	40c	130.67$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.07	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-15%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No	17c	130.52$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.02	13	92.3%12 W · 1 L	+5.4wins	+0.42per pick	51cpaid	+187.2%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No	47c	129.88$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.88	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+2.9wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No	79c	120.55$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.09	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x074b…1cbebacked No	43c	115.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.48	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	60c	106.94$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.13	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No	32c	100$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	126	31.7%40 W · 86 L	-8.7wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Yes	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes	70c	97.14$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes	41c	95.52$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.39	49	16.3%8 W · 41 L	-9.8wins	-0.20per pick	36cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No	20c	95.46$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.47	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes	17c	94.82$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	16c	92.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8af…11f4backed No	69c	90$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.81	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	75c	80$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.6	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.21per pick	31cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes	14c	76.01$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66e1…5aefbacked Yes	24c	75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bb…b578backed Yes	17c	70.75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	28c	64.86$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.46	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed No	27c	62.45$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.34	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.40per pick	27cpaid	+168.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe948…61e1backed No	75c	62.27$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.69	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No	68c	49.99$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.95	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9666…abbfbacked Yes	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab20…d9e2backed Yes	79c	40.39$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.95	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed No	46c	40$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.6	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes	71c	38.28$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.18	68	33.8%23 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	40c	36.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.61	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed No	67c	33.21$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfebc…0194backed Yes	37c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?this page
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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