Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f0c72d7b048746d425a39e54419d593e67c5ba566a7119cf1510e74b1261772
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 14,957$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.83 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked No | 35c | 12,770$4,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,284.56 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e9…8f85backed No | 77c | 6,882$5,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed No | 74c | 6,000$4,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 10c | 5,824$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.14 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 66c | 4,648$3,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 37c | 3,270$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.01 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 20c | 3,220$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.41 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,026$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.96 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa001…cb11backed No | 75c | 3,000$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 2,799$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 10c | 2,503$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,253.24 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes | 26c | 2,118$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.17 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…4c08backed No | 78c | 1,883$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 22c | 1,072$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.35 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 72c | 972.86$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.76 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes | 2c | 969.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 2c | 940$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked Yes | 74c | 931.39$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.84 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked No | 73c | 866.5$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 694.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…58bcbacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 17c | 584.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 545.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 18c | 512.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…fe06backed Yes | 10c | 451.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…c04bbacked No | 8c | 434.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 415.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf218…28a6backed No | 77c | 402.19$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…3a2dbacked No | 70c | 382.49$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 3c | 343.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 6c | 331.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.9 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 35c | 321.44$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.12 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 311.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce4…36a6backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 69c | 286$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed No | 30c | 285.73$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.08 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 33c | 263.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No | 77c | 260$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 40c | 256.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.45 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 221.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 66c | 209.52$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.28 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…3e93backed No | 11c | 197.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 25cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 16c | 193.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 11c | 191.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 75c | 180.89$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 74c | 175.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…d4cebacked Yes | 11c | 142.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 8c | 138$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 75c | 135.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 75c | 135.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 69c | 134.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 8c | 132.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 75c | 131.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 19c | 118.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…e178backed No | 63c | 112.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 106.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed Yes | 10c | 102.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +515.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…771fbacked Yes | 11c | 89.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…2b46backed Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 24c | 70.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…2a8cbacked Yes | 29c | 65.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…11f4backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c1…c7a9backed Yes | 64c | 56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 73c | 54.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 71c | 50.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e1…5aefbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 67c | 47.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 41c | 45.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.4wins | +0.42per pick | 51cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 43.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…45e6backed No | 41c | 27.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd3…65bebacked No | 70c | 25.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…3052backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a4…ffebbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5f62backed Yes | 75c | 17.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed No | 69c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…0a31backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?this page
- Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.