TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6291…cc47

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,092
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 55 out of 100; worst Tweets at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT28528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 285 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.91
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+33%+$128.5
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+77.5%+$130.95
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.1
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.8
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$539.85
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+100%+$150
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.55
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+119.5%+$334.23
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.7
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.92
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$117
Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$999.76
Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,676Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+74.7%+$1,252.46
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$615Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$615.42
Showing 25 of 285 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT28434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 284 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+49.7%+$99.6
Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$96
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.5
Will David Lammy be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+300%+$149.99
Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$204
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$87
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.2
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$168
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,379Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,378.93
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+486.2%+$499.07
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,275Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$1,195.56
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.7
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.99
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$3,816Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,815.77
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$9,080Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+63.5%+$5,769.84
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.07
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,468Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,467.64
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+100%+$50.6
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+100%+$150
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Showing 25 of 284 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT24433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 244 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$82
Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$42
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+150%+$120
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.77
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.4
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+32.4%+$78.6
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+112.2%+$84.17
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$697Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$696.99
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+139.7%+$301.88
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$272
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+37%+$54
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+37%+$54
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$520
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$975Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$974.7
Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$122.6
Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$272
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will Aisha Farooqi be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.73
Will Chris Swanson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.24
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+654.4%+$431.45
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Showing 25 of 244 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT8538.8%33 W · 52 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 85 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$800
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.3
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$480
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$290
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,018Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,018.16
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$104.99
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$781Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+79.3%+$618.96
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$280
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.99
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$789Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+140.9%+$1,111.12
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,615Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,614.73
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+77.3%+$214.28
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+121%+$328.5
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$574Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+108.9%+$625.69
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$579Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$320.98
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$649.9
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$47.2
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$64
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$631Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$631.4
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$327
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$793Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$793.38
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Showing 25 of 85 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT8042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 80 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$425
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.96
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.95
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+92.5%+$105.94
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+175.9%+$637.5
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$61.77
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.33
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$996Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+98.6%+$982.49
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$258
Bill Clinton charged by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$818Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$272.96
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$123
House passes Massie-Khanna war powers resolution by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$168
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$50.4
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$776Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$775.73
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$432
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+107.8%+$407.11
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$82.84
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$85.56
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+31.6%+$72
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+39.1%+$55.54
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,706Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$2,706.42
Showing 25 of 80 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST2512%3 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-67.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.42
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$13.41
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$38.94
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$275.32
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$79.57
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$722Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$721.97
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$154.4
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.66
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$17.3
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$128.69
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,147Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$1,146.61
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+64%+$64.21
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$332.23
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$143
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$918Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+36.1%+$331.48
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,513Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,512.8
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$72.58
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$40.4
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+421.7%+$242.49
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$58.09
All 25 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT2445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$232
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$4,207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$4,207.25
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+119.7%+$596.22
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$99.67
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$9,112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+69.4%+$6,321.48
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$16.2
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$90.33
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$128.2
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$316.67
Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+117.4%+$54
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+100%+$25
Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+99.2%+$70.81
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$66.27
Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+185.7%+$32.5
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+72.4%+$99.04
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$118.3
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,630Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,630.4
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+203%+$134
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+184.6%+$454
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$53.5
Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+37.9%+$72.47
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$86.69
All 24 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+96.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump and Machado only be photographed together, without a clear handshake?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+49.3%+$66
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+44.9%+$93
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$85.8
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+156.4%+$122
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+669.2%+$174
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+1,328.6%+$186
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$271.5
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$64
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$120
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$15
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$62
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$93
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,763Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,763.4
Will Tyler Robinson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$234
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+170.3%+$126
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$417.32
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,127Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+121.4%+$1,367.77
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$294
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$241.44
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$35.9
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$75.47
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$187
All 11 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$88.16
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$23.11
Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$84.23
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+64.5%+$159.25
Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+336.7%+$462.6
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$416.07
Will Last Christmas - Wham! be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+72.4%+$84
Will Golden by HUNTR/X be the 3rd most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$46.45
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dartbacked Harriet Dart · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.93
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.