Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdccb1ae8d9cf2b226f2b012bf51f310048ddcedf33eb14fc5317dd348b95794
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed No | 36c | 1,537$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 77c | 959.75$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.34 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 73c | 800$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.75 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 71c | 654.25$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.68 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed No | 28c | 650.96$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…f41ebacked Yes | 66c | 574.28$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 35c | 487.69$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…0f96backed Yes | 54c | 372.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 62c | 299.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 34c | 274.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 73c | 263.59$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 30c | 249.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 23c | 174.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 28c | 155.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed No | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed Yes | 67c | 135.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83db…1a40backed No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…a4afbacked No | 48c | 104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 38c | 101.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dd…2813backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…3079backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 73c | 95.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked No | 30c | 84.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 44c | 82.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…5825backed Yes | 65c | 77.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 36c | 74.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 72.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 30c | 67.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067c…2d46backed Yes | 77c | 64.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked No | 35c | 54.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 50.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…68dcbacked No | 26c | 50.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…a0e2backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…872cbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41d9…1c39backed Yes | 58c | 47.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed No | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…e456backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…e68bbacked No | 52c | 39.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…c5d9backed Yes | 63c | 39.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…45d2backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +160.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7b…1357backed No | 48c | 35.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518d…5a2cbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46a…47a1backed Yes | 56c | 29.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…cc56backed Yes | 73c | 24.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bffcbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4150…42f2backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.