Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c85110b52fa45e8d0a49ba2c1356092a17c9209faf11c8bcb511f4710ef8530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e86…29abbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 42c | 2,515$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 58c | 1,292$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.21 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 37c | 470.84$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.43 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 76c | 422.02$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 3c | 412.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 54c | 361$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 34c | 224.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 34c | 208.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 59c | 186$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed Yes | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 11c | 167.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…2100backed Yes | 61c | 163.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…7841backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf495…de66backed Yes | 73c | 136.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed Yes | 57c | 120.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed No | 44c | 119.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 33c | 116.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 115.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed No | 34c | 114.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…a4afbacked No | 45c | 111$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…f70ebacked Yes | 60c | 100.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…2004backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 71c | 93.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…050cbacked Yes | 59c | 92.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 42c | 79.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 34c | 69.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 61c | 61.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +213.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 68c | 58.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 57.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…5050backed No | 37c | 53.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…2634backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 53c | 46.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…a111backed Yes | 59c | 42.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeac…b326backed No | 53c | 38.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a98…4f01backed Yes | 57c | 37.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a23…642bbacked No | 50c | 37.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -87%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…3385backed Yes | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 67c | 33.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2457…5a35backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 45c | 30.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Yes | 66c | 30.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.6wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…96a6backed Yes | 67c | 29.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 44c | 29.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…0911backed Yes | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226c…5541backed Yes | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 62c | 24.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a18…5923backed Yes | 56c | 21.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb404…ca32backed Yes | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…aab3backed Yes | 67c | 17.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee70…4ad6backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.