Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1accff8e659dc833de80fd6d3b18f34367d3c53e42cc07ff9ff3481dc06dd060
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $500,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $453,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b50…1657backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b95…977fbacked No | 4c | 27,611$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 2c | 19,052$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.08 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309e…4e29backed No | 2c | 17,070$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 2c | 16,420$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.36 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 14,403$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.18 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…34f5backed No | 1c | 11,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…6c9cbacked No | 5c | 10,511$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd7…b849backed No | 0c | 9,117$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8b…0cb6backed No | 4c | 8,507$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 2c | 8,465$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.44 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…ba58backed No | 3c | 6,674$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…4086backed No | 4c | 5,582$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 4,888$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 2c | 4,770$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…7b12backed No | 1c | 4,700$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…82ebbacked No | 2c | 4,098$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed No | 6c | 3,553$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed No | 3c | 3,434$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a3…8917backed No | 3c | 3,308$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 3,216$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a23…31c3backed No | 3c | 3,177$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 2c | 3,148$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed No | 5c | 3,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 2c | 2,941$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x735f…c2d5backed No | 2c | 2,800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f67…02afbacked No | 4c | 2,778$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e8…944ebacked No | 2c | 2,712$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca3…9a39backed No | 4c | 2,617$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…46cfbacked No | 4c | 2,596$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…dbbdbacked No | 2c | 2,546$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe265…7069backed No | 4c | 2,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d7…0ff6backed No | 3c | 2,486$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d1…33cfbacked No | 4c | 2,454$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229d…a439backed No | 2c | 2,453$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…1911backed No | 4c | 2,444$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 2c | 2,389$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 2c | 2,287$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e57…5640backed No | 4c | 2,256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757f…7cbdbacked No | 4c | 2,102$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,093$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e0a6backed No | 3c | 2,053$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…4bd2backed No | 5c | 2,042$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…c7b4backed No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…357dbacked No | 5c | 1,933$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…558abacked No | 3c | 1,855$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked No | 3c | 1,786$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…840dbacked No | 3c | 1,738$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa058…3fd5backed No | 6c | 1,673$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…779bbacked No | 4c | 1,642$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…137abacked No | 4c | 1,597$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f9…3970backed No | 4c | 1,479$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…1f7ebacked No | 2c | 1,457$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…2291backed No | 3c | 1,390$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 2c | 1,366$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…1a88backed No | 2c | 1,303$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06f…f8a8backed No | 2c | 1,296$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…5902backed No | 2c | 1,280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x150d…9d12backed No | 3c | 1,268$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…3811backed No | 5c | 1,215$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…423fbacked No | 4c | 1,171$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked No | 3c | 1,168$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…ef1fbacked No | 3c | 1,119$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed No | 2c | 1,111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…9efebacked No | 5c | 1,070$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…b8f9backed No | 2c | 1,048$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf71…f0a4backed No | 5c | 1,042$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32aa…60adbacked No | 3c | 1,035$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…68dcbacked No | 4c | 1,030$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed No | 3c | 1,015$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc1…dfcdbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…f1f9backed No | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce02…73aabacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…0a00backed No | 5c | 980$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…23b3backed No | 4c | 972.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…7301backed No | 3c | 949.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…80febacked No | 3c | 937.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce35…ab3cbacked No | 2c | 900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed No | 2c | 896.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 3c | 896.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde3a…99f5backed No | 4c | 893.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…ff34backed No | 3c | 890.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed No | 2c | 880$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26e…1a63backed No | 5c | 875.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f2…27d4backed No | 3c | 874.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…1edcbacked No | 6c | 862.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d20…514cbacked No | 1c | 845.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…1492backed No | 2c | 842.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed No | 2c | 835.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…4dddbacked No | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…a2c6backed No | 5c | 833.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 3c | 829.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 2c | 825.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.