Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a0eda8fbcb7a8780c2de96a662ad9cb295b28bbfccfe38e53cde0bf0250638a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 796.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 47c | 623.73$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed Yes | 34c | 326$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 62c | 312.53$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.29 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed No | 55c | 300$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked No | 66c | 299$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6063…22cebacked Yes | 53c | 227.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 46c | 221.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…5a39backed Yes | 37c | 206.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…da50backed No | 52c | 180.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed No | 59c | 170.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 159.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 60c | 143.78$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked No | 61c | 123.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 60c | 117.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 37c | 105.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 101.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6241…82b2backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…050cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…2c4ebacked Yes | 54c | 92.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 37c | 82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f36…4f21backed No | 55c | 78.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 53c | 74.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed No | 63c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 45c | 59.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked No | 63c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 59c | 53.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…e456backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 48.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…a800backed Yes | 38c | 39.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 36c | 39.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870e…a2cfbacked Yes | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…ce6fbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac13…6506backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dad…3713backed Yes | 61c | 33.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fd…9429backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 55c | 27.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…44d8backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 40c | 25.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 46c | 22.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 50c | 20.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…175fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609b…99c8backed Yes | 61c | 18.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…3ca1backed No | 61c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed No | 64c | 15.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.