TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeebf…c7b5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
121
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Macro Indicators, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Macro Indicators at 56 out of 100; worst F1 at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST3542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$88.2
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$103
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$36.99
Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$14.13
Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12.6
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+175.2%+$203.7
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+117.9%+$48.7
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$164.7
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.7
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$144.04
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$181
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+325.5%+$153
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.81
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$17.4
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+189.9%+$57.53
Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+252.9%+$107.5
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$41
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$7.5
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST2339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+41.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$57.14
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+284.6%+$73.99
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+183.3%+$46.2
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$69
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+300%+$37.5
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+193.3%+$124.88
Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$618Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$617.5
Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.31
Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+27.2%+$64.2
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.09
Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+62.6%+$308
Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.69
Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$570.36
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.76
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+68.8%+$81.48
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.32
Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.49
Will the US add between 50-100k jobs in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will the US add between 100-150k jobs in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+80.8%+$86.88
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.4
Will the US add between 150-200k jobs in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$56
Will the US add between 200-250k jobs in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+1,150%+$184
All 23 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-86.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
F1 — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$141
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.9
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$215.02
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$396.76
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.2
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.26
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$62.5
Will Max Verstappen win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$131.57
Will Lando Norris win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$86.07
Will Lando Norris win the Qatar Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+84%+$22.82
Will Max Verstappen win the Qatar Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$284.35
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.95
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+300%+$60
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$31
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$19.63
Spread: Spain (-2.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Spain (-3.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+52.3%+$38.68
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+177.6%+$106.54
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.86
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.5
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+112.8%+$33.92
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+300%+$225
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$59.19
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$112.5
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$30.99
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$112
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+63.9%+$19.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+246.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$274.24
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$261
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.4
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT+1,588.7%+$959.58
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$558Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$558.42
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+904.6%+$198.1
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$109
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.06
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+156.8%+$457.99
Will Donald Trump be shown 0-2 times at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$17.8
Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$30.37
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+49.9%+$48.38
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-67.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+42.9%+$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$262.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.