Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x724d93d1f4fbf1520e9ee8473bf2e2e2906a1bbfbf4c97499ef32801297e14dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf60d…9ec9backed Yes | 28c | 74,206$20,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,902.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 71c | 43,750$31,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,585.53 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 72c | 18,730$13,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,166.68 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 76c | 5,917$4,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.11 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 4,494$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.89 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 70c | 2,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 72c | 2,406$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.48 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 1c | 2,220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,212$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.39 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,152$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 80c | 2,045$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.75 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 73c | 1,369$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.36 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…442abacked No | 77c | 1,303$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…c20fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 34c | 1,096$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 25c | 1,096$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.58 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…4568backed No | 75c | 938.14$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…09febacked Yes | 15c | 517.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 12c | 514.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…bcd6backed No | 70c | 500$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e22…d7e3backed Yes | 15c | 472.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 71c | 471.8$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.94 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 73c | 430$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 75c | 400.52$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed No | 73c | 396.65$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8be…5cb3backed Yes | 29c | 389$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed Yes | 23c | 350$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 78c | 322.76$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…1eabbacked Yes | 9c | 305.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 20c | 302.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 77c | 297.71$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86ec…a3a7backed Yes | 24c | 283.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 67c | 279.81$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a2…0e75backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 22c | 275.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked No | 75c | 271.21$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 22c | 270.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes | 23c | 266.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 20c | 264.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 39c | 253.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 11c | 214$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 72c | 207.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 72c | 188.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36e…fc56backed Yes | 30c | 163.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…a252backed Yes | 26c | 154.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…f445backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda90…4748backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…c772backed Yes | 29c | 138.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…82e4backed Yes | 22c | 136.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…e078backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 75c | 132.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…269bbacked No | 77c | 130.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 18c | 126.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 17c | 114.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8435…e7d9backed Yes | 18c | 111.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 78c | 104.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x487c…4daabacked Yes | 19c | 104.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…52ddbacked Yes | 25c | 100.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…7673backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…6c85backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6e…3e46backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…575fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe25…5fc6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10de…7183backed Yes | 17c | 95.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed No | 73c | 95.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 18c | 94.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 28c | 93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…61b5backed Yes | 27c | 92.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d9…94f5backed Yes | 30c | 92.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ff…10f4backed No | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes | 22c | 90.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d5…1f99backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…3e51backed Yes | 23c | 87.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 22c | 86.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed No | 70c | 85.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed No | 79c | 82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 24c | 71.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…cf78backed Yes | 24c | 65.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…6a2fbacked Yes | 23c | 64.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…ca15backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…37adbacked Yes | 18c | 57.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…72afbacked Yes | 19c | 55.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 50.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.