Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c3d85d94a8938ee548d9ab6cc74f9c384768025f69395e55d3d1c8d7b6a4026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $480,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $484,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 691 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 75c | 57,148$43,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,047.16 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e13cbacked Yes | 25c | 28,800$7,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,340.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 73c | 23,489$17,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,371.84 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 72c | 22,726$16,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,468.22 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 8c | 22,443$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.44 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…6c4cbacked Yes | 39c | 20,424$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 74c | 14,265$10,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,677.34 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ea…17d7backed Yes | 25c | 13,390$3,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,387.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb8…e817backed Yes | 24c | 10,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…9665backed Yes | 11c | 9,786$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 25c | 7,616$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…09febacked Yes | 24c | 6,491$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 74c | 6,019$4,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.61 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 21c | 5,805$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.27 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…5176backed Yes | 26c | 5,467$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 22c | 5,379$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.1 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…4568backed No | 74c | 5,360$3,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd50…63d8backed Yes | 24c | 5,315$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 20c | 5,069$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.04 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 5,047$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.64 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…9ac0backed No | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…7934backed No | 68c | 5,000$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…d698backed Yes | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4719backed No | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7246…a3dbbacked Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…aabfbacked Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…0930backed Yes | 29c | 4,864$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5386…d965backed Yes | 25c | 4,073$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71a…6fc9backed Yes | 12c | 3,733$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…f860backed No | 75c | 3,646$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.74 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…ee54backed Yes | 31c | 3,191$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…c749backed No | 76c | 3,118$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…6adcbacked Yes | 33c | 3,065$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed No | 57c | 2,788$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.79 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f3babacked Yes | 26c | 2,669$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 21c | 2,657$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6f…864cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,632$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 16c | 2,620$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.87 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed No | 76c | 2,616$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 80c | 2,557$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.99 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…61cebacked No | 79c | 2,431$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…a195backed Yes | 25c | 2,419$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 72c | 2,417$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.94 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 22c | 2,415$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Yes | 25c | 2,400$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 75c | 2,292$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.5 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,275$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes | 31c | 2,262$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 71c | 2,188$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.64 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 28c | 2,184$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.56 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed No | 79c | 2,126$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.37 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 62c | 2,104$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.91 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 32c | 2,092$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 77c | 2,020$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.59 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 69c | 2,000$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.33 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 77c | 1,976$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.62 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,923$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 75c | 1,916$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.69 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7480…65a2backed Yes | 22c | 1,900$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed No | 60c | 1,858$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36f…6712backed Yes | 23c | 1,807$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 72c | 1,779$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.92 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…3b3fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 67c | 1,737$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 75c | 1,702$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.26 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e75…8edebacked Yes | 30c | 1,678$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 21c | 1,676$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.67 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 26cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 11c | 1,598$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked Yes | 19c | 1,582$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +98%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…f3c4backed Yes | 16c | 1,575$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…e2d1backed Yes | 29c | 1,562$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8b…73aabacked Yes | 27c | 1,469$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Yes | 19c | 1,448$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.14 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…c557backed Yes | 24c | 1,410$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 22c | 1,392$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.21 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 60c | 1,365$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.13 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 33c | 1,354$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.15 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7050…b4fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,346$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1194…fae4backed Yes | 30c | 1,337$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 75c | 1,310$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.17 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…672ebacked No | 79c | 1,264$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…0ff9backed No | 80c | 1,255$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 31c | 1,250$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.12 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…e505backed Yes | 30c | 1,243$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…0ed0backed Yes | 42c | 1,226$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…9379backed Yes | 30c | 1,218$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,212$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes | 26c | 1,192$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…5932backed Yes | 42c | 1,161$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 76c | 1,135$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.19 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 18c | 1,117$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.32 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…19e3backed No | 74c | 1,084$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 10c | 1,062$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…d13cbacked No | 76c | 1,060$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed No | 78c | 1,023$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.23 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 1,016$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.09 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…0ce4backed Yes | 10c | 1,014$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…7843backed Yes | 25c | 1,008$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.