TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,331 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed Yes17c11,070$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.647041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd50…63d8backed Yes13c4,273$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x444a…1913backed Yes27c3,716$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes3c3,358$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.913859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab1…d307backed Yes18c2,738$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes18c2,637$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.7121022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes11c2,541$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.8132029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb9…1a07backed Yes12c2,322$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.46475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+140.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a03…b538backed Yes12c2,200$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f66…4f72backed Yes12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6a34…47e9backed Yes14c1,389$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-79.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x42ef…8686backed Yes21c1,374$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.0240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54fc…a48cbacked Yes12c1,363$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.61421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fdf…3252backed Yes15c1,320$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4238…4cecbacked Yes14c1,319$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes13c1,065$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.671442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bce…85fabacked Yes14c1,044$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.791421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-0.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ae…2324backed Yes1c1,039$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…4e58backed Yes12c1,009$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125258%2 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-61.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…d59abacked Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae6…5604backed Yes7c983.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.261020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55db…7ce1backed Yes13c950.74$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.11435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e90…a312backed Yes16c805.13$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd318…2fe2backed Yes25c801.38$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62dd…869abacked Yes17c800$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed No75c771.76$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.942626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418f…b7b6backed Yes18c749.67$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1331717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0aa…5afebacked Yes13c747.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb21…51bebacked Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Yes25c671.76$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9480%0 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f2e…5ce6backed Yes12c629.6$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes17c625$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2322…b711backed Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-51.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf4…dca9backed Yes16c616.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd170…ef28backed Yes17c594.12$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes18c575.17$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0937533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed Yes10c571.65$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.173953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+124.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f90…90ccbacked Yes18c556.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-58.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f1…ae37backed Yes19c526.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45ab…2c73backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f0…6610backed Yes15c499.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb338…ad5bbacked Yes14c480.93$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ab…361bbacked Yes17c478.08$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes21c475.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd452…03e0backed Yes23c445.08$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8be…830cbacked Yes16c425$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d38…2122backed Yes12c417$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes15c412.67$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.93423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642313%3 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-54.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86db…39c4backed Yes13c390$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.770%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes17c383.97$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.481145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+64.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes16c379.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4717355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c366.74$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes6c360.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+230%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe29…5677backed Yes14c355.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1837…8da6backed Yes12c334.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2110%0 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e94…7074backed Yes15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba2…4126backed Yes15c325$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes13c320$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.67825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf124…ec53backed Yes16c320$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828f…4e16backed Yes13c319.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf195…a7c1backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes16c312$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83a9…5369backed Yes17c300.59$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22d8…c2c8backed Yes17c297.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa319…02dabacked Yes20c292.86$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-63.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7ea…fa11backed Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5360…b48bbacked Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bad…8087backed Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb883…0272backed Yes12c272.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3eb…0829backed Yes14c272.23$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.893023.3%7 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-51.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x480a…6bf8backed Yes12c265.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Yes13c250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52532%8 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8305…5f21backed Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+69.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.52516%4 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb500…9c3dbacked Yes15c250$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ce…b599backed Yes17c235.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes20c227.76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4430319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8663…35e7backed Yes18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402030%6 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes8c220$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6937740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee36…bebebacked Yes14c214.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x372b…2edabacked Yes14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3480%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5ef…5f65backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb416…c63dbacked Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe34a…5e71backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad47…5a02backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-73%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x971f…160abacked Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2850%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa743…6a3ebacked Yes13c199.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4470…e93bbacked Yes17c196.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.39147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6b7…cf6dbacked Yes26c193.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes14c184.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x487c…4daabacked Yes17c181$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ad…c47fbacked Yes15c172.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…0dfdbacked Yes15c169.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+118.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e20…f3e7backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+75.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf38b…df47backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x152a…e12dbacked Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.