Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaad8f0f13c40fde9cbc01e1c1f4eed189568207282cac3f6370bcfdeba0bfcf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 17c | 11,070$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.64 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd50…63d8backed Yes | 13c | 4,273$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444a…1913backed Yes | 27c | 3,716$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,358$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…d307backed Yes | 18c | 2,738$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,637$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.71 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 11c | 2,541$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.81 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb9…1a07backed Yes | 12c | 2,322$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…b538backed Yes | 12c | 2,200$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…4f72backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 14c | 1,389$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…8686backed Yes | 21c | 1,374$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…a48cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,363$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…3252backed Yes | 15c | 1,320$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…4cecbacked Yes | 14c | 1,319$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,065$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 14c | 1,044$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.79 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…2324backed Yes | 1c | 1,039$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 12c | 1,009$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…d59abacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae6…5604backed Yes | 7c | 983.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7ce1backed Yes | 13c | 950.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…a312backed Yes | 16c | 805.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd318…2fe2backed Yes | 25c | 801.38$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 17c | 800$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 75c | 771.76$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.94 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…b7b6backed Yes | 18c | 749.67$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0aa…5afebacked Yes | 13c | 747.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…51bebacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 25c | 671.76$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2e…5ce6backed Yes | 12c | 629.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 17c | 625$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2322…b711backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf4…dca9backed Yes | 16c | 616.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…ef28backed Yes | 17c | 594.12$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 575.17$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 10c | 571.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…90ccbacked Yes | 18c | 556.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…ae37backed Yes | 19c | 526.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ab…2c73backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…6610backed Yes | 15c | 499.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…ad5bbacked Yes | 14c | 480.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…361bbacked Yes | 17c | 478.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 21c | 475.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd452…03e0backed Yes | 23c | 445.08$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8be…830cbacked Yes | 16c | 425$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…2122backed Yes | 12c | 417$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 15c | 412.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…39c4backed Yes | 13c | 390$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes | 17c | 383.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 16c | 379.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 366.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 6c | 360.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +230%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe29…5677backed Yes | 14c | 355.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…8da6backed Yes | 12c | 334.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e94…7074backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba2…4126backed Yes | 15c | 325$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 13c | 320$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…ec53backed Yes | 16c | 320$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828f…4e16backed Yes | 13c | 319.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf195…a7c1backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes | 16c | 312$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…5369backed Yes | 17c | 300.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d8…c2c8backed Yes | 17c | 297.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…02dabacked Yes | 20c | 292.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ea…fa11backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…b48bbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…8087backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…0272backed Yes | 12c | 272.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…0829backed Yes | 14c | 272.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…6bf8backed Yes | 12c | 265.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8305…5f21backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb500…9c3dbacked Yes | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 227.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…35e7backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 8c | 220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee36…bebebacked Yes | 14c | 214.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…2edabacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ef…5f65backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c63dbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34a…5e71backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…5a02backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…160abacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa743…6a3ebacked Yes | 13c | 199.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 17c | 196.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…cf6dbacked Yes | 26c | 193.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes | 14c | 184.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x487c…4daabacked Yes | 17c | 181$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…c47fbacked Yes | 15c | 172.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…0dfdbacked Yes | 15c | 169.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…df47backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152a…e12dbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.