TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,913 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf27…929ebacked Yes1c10,119$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-51.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes43c8,032$3,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,426.287041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No58c5,234$3,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,214.497354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No58c4,778$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.5815646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xace6…4232backed Yes54c3,682$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No56c3,181$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.552365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.998134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No48c2,986$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.432729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdae0…e1ecbacked No62c2,478$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes22c2,254$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.153859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x835d…62dcbacked Yes50c2,183$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.861136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3407…c3ebbacked Yes43c2,100$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff1…98d7backed Yes56c1,784$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Yes45c1,692$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.192119%4 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-41.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6e49…0f4ebacked Yes47c1,600$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes30c1,526$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.374314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No56c1,300$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5726145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes47c1,138$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.6521022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No41c1,085$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.3521935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf507…525bbacked No54c1,035$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.11361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No55c1,034$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.8413540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56020446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4222…33e2backed Yes2c999.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes46c939.9$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.914742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes37c914.33$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.3696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No49c901.21$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.9939522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20e…5998backed No54c863.43$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.511566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked No49c849.23$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.42737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No71c818.89$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.015644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa54…f2aabacked Yes20c812.26$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9160%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked No57c727.68$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.682254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No51c665.8$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.613253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No61c626.79$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.448547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No58c595.64$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.311968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes42c564.41$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.953023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes45c545.1$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.8537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1856021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc529…4f2cbacked No50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2e…91ecbacked Yes55c500$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2722…7e87backed Yes54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9595…1b16backed Yes44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed No61c492.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.874339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6098…599fbacked No51c491.41$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe677…2a7abacked Yes52c477.18$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4f1…ae37backed No76c440.71$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.411118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Yes42c425.57$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.412934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes25c420.89$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.178847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No56c401.16$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.2314843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed No50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc57c…1fc6backed Yes72c377.74$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73e5…53bdbacked No60c365$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.551172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes42c348$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.061,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes46c344.24$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15917452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes9c330$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.26041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No48c321.26$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4632029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb5…6a2fbacked Yes44c314.42$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes46c302.91$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeeca…9826backed Yes50c302.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes49c300$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.210324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f1…a137backed Yes66c297.51$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.340%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No51c281.66$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1373953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+124.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No55c269.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.24040%16 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+82.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8c7…5104backed Yes42c263.73$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No54c263.44$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.231435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ac…b46fbacked Yes49c250.1$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.270%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203129%9 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked Yes50c250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes41c250$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.36850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes44c246.1$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.563735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No46c224.32$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3810347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0c…f772backed Yes47c213.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes47c211.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed No47c210.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.641040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No56c209$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5814241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes38c208.17$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7917021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2753…2683backed No50c201.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.39875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed No56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e3…ad70backed Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841010%1 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14411950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ba2…eaa7backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…8afebacked Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e6…bee0backed Yes51c196.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa34…66fbbacked Yes55c194.03$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.811520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed No52c192.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.694928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked Yes54c185.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ba…eea1backed No55c182.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.941723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba6b…f1f5backed No55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4e…7033backed Yes55c181.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+111.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0067…b448backed Yes50c180.78$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3950%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x87a0…4e12backed Yes42c180.41$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.852630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e27…6e53backed Yes55c180.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed Yes49c180$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.24156.1%23 W · 18 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+66.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd36…e7d5backed No58c174.53$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.531833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb65…2865backed No58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe55…352abacked No58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3a…b402backed Yes38c164.16$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dda…74e6backed Yes63c157.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-65.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked No64c157.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.427638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc82…c7c5backed Yes45c155.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-65.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.