Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9e21ab5fefdd56aa4992e3e39ef1a2240e9d0d625bc9e82c50773c84f299912
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,119$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 43c | 8,032$3,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,426.28 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 58c | 5,234$3,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,214.49 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 58c | 4,778$2,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.58 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…4232backed Yes | 54c | 3,682$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 56c | 3,181$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.55 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.99 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 48c | 2,986$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.43 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae0…e1ecbacked No | 62c | 2,478$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 22c | 2,254$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.15 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x835d…62dcbacked Yes | 50c | 2,183$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked Yes | 43c | 2,100$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff1…98d7backed Yes | 56c | 1,784$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 45c | 1,692$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.19 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…0f4ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,600$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,526$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.37 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 56c | 1,300$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,138$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.65 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 41c | 1,085$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.35 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf507…525bbacked No | 54c | 1,035$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 55c | 1,034$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.84 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…33e2backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 46c | 939.9$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.9 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 914.33$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.36 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 49c | 901.21$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.99 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed No | 54c | 863.43$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.51 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked No | 49c | 849.23$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 71c | 818.89$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.01 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa54…f2aabacked Yes | 20c | 812.26$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 57c | 727.68$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.68 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 51c | 665.8$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.61 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 61c | 626.79$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed No | 58c | 595.64$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.31 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 42c | 564.41$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.95 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 45c | 545.1$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.85 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc529…4f2cbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…91ecbacked Yes | 55c | 500$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…7e87backed Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 61c | 492.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.87 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…599fbacked No | 51c | 491.41$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe677…2a7abacked Yes | 52c | 477.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…ae37backed No | 76c | 440.71$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 42c | 425.57$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.41 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 25c | 420.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 56c | 401.16$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.23 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57c…1fc6backed Yes | 72c | 377.74$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…53bdbacked No | 60c | 365$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 348$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.06 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 46c | 344.24$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 9c | 330$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 48c | 321.26$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.46 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…6a2fbacked Yes | 44c | 314.42$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 302.91$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed Yes | 50c | 302.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 49c | 300$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f1…a137backed Yes | 66c | 297.51$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 51c | 281.66$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 55c | 269.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c7…5104backed Yes | 42c | 263.73$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 54c | 263.44$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ac…b46fbacked Yes | 49c | 250.1$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 41c | 250$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 44c | 246.1$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.56 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 46c | 224.32$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0c…f772backed Yes | 47c | 213.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 47c | 211.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed No | 47c | 210.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 56c | 209$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 38c | 208.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…2683backed No | 50c | 201.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…eaa7backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…bee0backed Yes | 51c | 196.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…66fbbacked Yes | 55c | 194.03$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 52c | 192.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 54c | 185.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed No | 55c | 182.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…f1f5backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…7033backed Yes | 55c | 181.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…b448backed Yes | 50c | 180.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 42c | 180.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…6e53backed Yes | 55c | 180.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 49c | 180$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…e7d5backed No | 58c | 174.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb65…2865backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…352abacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…b402backed Yes | 38c | 164.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…74e6backed Yes | 63c | 157.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 64c | 157.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed Yes | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.