Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b0a8d6b638fb509c5c56db47a4fd0e027f10cf360a6a05d199a354eb951d172

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $161,726
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $162,647

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,726 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5095…c97cbacked No	77c	18,999$14,605 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,394.06	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb11…d6bebacked Yes	23c	18,983$4,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,400	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf27…929ebacked Yes	4c	8,672$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.42	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f62…02efbacked No	77c	6,122$4,708 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,413.83	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	16c	4,784$768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.49	210	22.4%47 W · 163 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34e3…6adcbacked Yes	23c	4,338$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa36e…fc56backed Yes	17c	4,184$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.32	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-3.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	13c	4,024$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.34	385	9.4%36 W · 349 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cd…3537backed Yes	17c	2,957$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.29per pick	21cpaid	+51.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	15c	2,943$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.49	320	29.1%93 W · 227 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No	76c	2,017$1,534 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$482.24	141	35.5%50 W · 91 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	25c	2,000$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.61	126	19.8%25 W · 101 L	-8.9wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes	22c	2,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	77	28.6%22 W · 55 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes	23c	1,980$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.09	24	25%6 W · 18 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87a0…4e12backed Yes	17c	1,962$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.62	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2a…a436backed Yes	17c	1,836$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.52	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x969c…314cbacked Yes	24c	1,724$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe53e…7bb3backed Yes	19c	1,559$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No	77c	1,500$1,155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebf…065ebacked Yes	17c	1,486$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes	21c	1,376$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.75	125	31.2%39 W · 86 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No	77c	1,348$1,037 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.4	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+4.2wins	+0.15per pick	31cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x835d…62dcbacked Yes	16c	1,226$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes	20c	1,169$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.71	174	52.9%92 W · 82 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No	77c	1,150$891 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.1	395	22.8%90 W · 305 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes	23c	1,080$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.53	57	40.4%23 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa357…1045backed Yes	6c	1,053$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.02	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes	15c	1,024$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	57	33.3%19 W · 38 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes	24c	1,000$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.57	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.19per pick	24cpaid	+65.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes	14c	1,000$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No	76c	900$684 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.4	70	45.7%32 W · 38 L	+7.5wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+66.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes	15c	837.33$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.84	375	33.3%125 W · 250 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes	13c	799.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd170…ef28backed Yes	19c	780.1$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-50%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No	77c	777$598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.71	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	16c	677.43$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.44	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb80f…cbf7backed Yes	15c	660.28$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.25per pick	17cpaid	+103.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes	10c	650.53$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.24	170	21.2%36 W · 134 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes	17c	626.94$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.8	173	55.5%96 W · 77 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked No	80c	625.05$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.05	76	38.2%29 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-29%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfc…9e59backed Yes	16c	625.04$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes	16c	617.47$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.34	189	14.3%27 W · 162 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafdf…325dbacked Yes	16c	612.45$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes	17c	590$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.88	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes	16c	586.38$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.82	106	32.1%34 W · 72 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd07c…1665backed Yes	18c	567.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ac…b46fbacked Yes	20c	562.81$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc212…a125backed No	76c	561.93$427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.92	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes	9c	559$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.19	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc76c…7d8bbacked Yes	17c	550.05$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.95	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	15c	546.68$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.96	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes	24c	500$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.5	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+3.7wins	+0.15per pick	22cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed No	76c	477$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.81	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No	78c	470.12$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.72	119	50.4%60 W · 59 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfce…a9aebacked Yes	16c	469.11$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+91.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f66…4f72backed Yes	12c	463.2$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.58	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes	22c	455.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	30%3 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x018a…442abacked No	78c	414.93$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.87	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	62cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6144…2fffbacked Yes	24c	410$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.04	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes	16c	407.51$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.44	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed No	80c	400.84$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.62	40	65%26 W · 14 L	+5.2wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x479e…23b3backed Yes	16c	400$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes	16c	400$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.52	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Yes	16c	400$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes	3c	399.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes	16c	399.98$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	169	43.2%73 W · 96 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd452…03e0backed Yes	19c	397.37$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	26cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	15c	388.35$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.45	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87b7…efccbacked Yes	17c	373.98$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.45	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes	28c	350.94$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	20c	350$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.27	100	35%35 W · 65 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes	10c	334$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	216	34.3%74 W · 142 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5799…1641backed Yes	12c	330.5$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.66	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	43cpaid	-76.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes	19c	330$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.7	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	31cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f90…90ccbacked Yes	28c	319.88$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.35	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62b1…ca22backed No	80c	312.3$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.63	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.29per pick	49cpaid	+71.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes	17c	311.12$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.51	303	19.1%58 W · 245 L	-20.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5109…51b7backed No	78c	309.4$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.77	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Yes	10c	305$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No	77c	302.48$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.19	67	50.7%34 W · 33 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0da…13d0backed Yes	17c	301.88$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc45…2957backed No	76c	300$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.6	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc1…ba14backed Yes	17c	289.45$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	41cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed Yes	21c	279.34$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes	15c	277.43$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.84	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No	71c	255.62$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.13	378	44.4%168 W · 210 L	+33.3wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+64.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes	38c	253.84$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.35	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-3.6wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes	20c	253.83$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc12…7c4fbacked Yes	17c	248.97$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.34	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3330…3205backed Yes	22c	231.88$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Yes	16c	220.1$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d7…5762backed Yes	20c	220$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.65	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes	15c	216.85$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.54	54	37%20 W · 34 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1b6…da55backed Yes	24c	205.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No	80c	203.15$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.67	172	25%43 W · 129 L	-6.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.8	98	46.9%46 W · 52 L	+7.4wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x990f…7f11backed Yes	21c	200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77ab…5a1abacked Yes	11c	200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8be…5cb3backed Yes	19c	200$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd6d…f860backed No	78c	199.61$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event