TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x89a5…cd84

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
151
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: NHL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST9932.3%32 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 99 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+120.9%+$144.99
Will "Wuthering Heights" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 18m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+645.2%+$1,967.74
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $92m and $99m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$152.48
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$513
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.98
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+38.3%+$26.83
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross more than $52m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$403
Will 'Hurry Up Tomorrow' gross more than $6m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$305
Will 'Shadow Force' gross between $1.6-2m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$574Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$574
Will 'Shadow Force' gross more than $2m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$613Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$613.1
Will 'Shadow Force' gross less than $1.2m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will 'Shadow Force' gross between $1.2-1.6m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$141
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross more than $1.5m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$618Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$618
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+138%+$555.81
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $77m and 82m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$706Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$705.89
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+596.4%+$298.21
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $67m and 72m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $385-400m by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$637Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$636.72
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross less than $370m by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+62.8%+$167.04
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $25-28m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross less than $25m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$605Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT+83.7%+$506.22
Showing 25 of 99 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$213.92
Will Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" 7 or more times during the announcement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+45.3%+$113.16
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the announcement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$50
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+185.7%+$260
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+217.5%+$217.5
Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2025, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Chelsea (To Advance) backed Fluminense · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$298
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance)backed Arsenal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Inter vs. Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$540.74
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$450
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$262.73
Panthers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$359Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$259.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+58.7%+$117.46
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ethereum all time high by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Ethereum all time high by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$54
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+62.8%+$94.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$107.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Ding · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.