TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

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Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,653,358
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,937,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,653,358 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,531 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x716f…9798backed No1c4,395,965$58,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,158.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f83…c71cbacked No1c2,570,986$14,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,585.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3d…06edbacked No1c2,068,878$29,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,983.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x627a…cdc2backed No1c2,008,184$11,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,467.481118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef52…cd4bbacked No1c1,831,987$9,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,935.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf5…9a7ebacked No1c1,516,840$13,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,847.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcaa…113fbacked No1c1,502,387$8,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,96110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8b8…5baebacked No1c1,483,949$15,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,287.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df7…65bebacked No1c1,318,437$12,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,097.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x638d…7436backed No1c1,166,754$9,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,334.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff01…73ccbacked No0c1,015,204$4,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,922.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd18…9facbacked No0c997,705$3,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,964.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf7…0741backed No1c937,861$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,399.640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae8…d5d3backed No1c932,701$8,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,690.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ebc…ad77backed No0c891,323$4,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,101.34714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85ed…4765backed No1c874,231$6,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,372.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7848…c9e2backed No2c834,903$16,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,559.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x017c…222dbacked No1c812,242$11,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,739.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3df…1eebbacked No1c805,860$10,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,509.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57dc…a126backed No1c791,331$4,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,063.1970%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc2…ad05backed No1c777,607$5,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,585.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No4c744,026$28,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,824.274814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c0…8a61backed No1c728,035$9,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,112.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc6…61b3backed No1c714,157$4,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,939.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2a7…2a61backed No1c706,916$6,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,015.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked No1c680,828$9,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,220.897638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No0c675,071$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,298.616740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd74b…924ebacked No3c669,824$20,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,605.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5627…d59cbacked No2c651,837$10,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,003.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No1c639,469$5,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,319.596229%18 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8bd…23f0backed No1c595,814$5,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,160.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fcb…e907backed No1c535,580$7,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,423.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…04a9backed No1c532,098$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0e…93abbacked No0c518,657$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9895…469ebacked No1c518,039$3,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,815.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x521b…a733backed No1c517,780$6,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,416.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c9…796bbacked No1c497,263$3,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,792.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410c…104bbacked No2c496,718$11,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,510.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x374c…4e87backed No1c433,462$4,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,163.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53e…7bb3backed No1c431,048$6,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,035130%0 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66dd…4f0bbacked No1c413,490$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfab7…953abacked No0c411,656$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6270…9ce7backed No1c410,763$4,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,889.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c51…5eb6backed No1c410,247$4,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x225a…0dc7backed No0c393,880$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed No0c373,387$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63e7…aca0backed No0c368,849$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…0a5bbacked No1c363,930$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,951.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd286…2322backed No3c361,995$9,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,541.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ca…6072backed No1c356,229$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b77…daecbacked No2c340,300$5,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,104.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24f2…e3a0backed No1c336,458$4,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,364.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fd…58d2backed No1c329,511$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784b…b61dbacked No0c327,338$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x824c…d2bbbacked No4c326,750$12,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,699.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe39…97d3backed No1c325,100$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,496.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fb…9491backed No2c322,005$6,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,365.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes69c317,835$219,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,072.567458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1756…3c96backed No0c317,441$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9afe…6f4fbacked No0c301,614$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b2a…83a2backed No0c298,747$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee0…146bbacked No1c297,708$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc542…231bbacked No1c297,598$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b2f…4265backed No1c280,131$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,513.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2eb…cd8dbacked No5c264,097$13,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,568.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…e741backed No0c260,319$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8c…5fedbacked No1c259,761$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes60c257,517$155,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,432.63955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd39b…c6c1backed No1c253,551$2,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,696.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed No1c249,996$3,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,450.792138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460f…bfb7backed No0c249,913$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e71…17c1backed No4c249,477$9,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,694.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5cb…6082backed No2c246,883$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,830.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a7…0df5backed No1c246,325$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc644…1a21backed No1c245,824$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc371…8d0bbacked No2c244,558$4,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,603.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ac1…f791backed No0c241,333$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef79…0f8abacked No1c240,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeba…6500backed No0c235,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0027…6e97backed No9c232,492$21,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,690.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3028…f098backed No1c232,023$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7999…ee7ebacked No0c231,826$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fa…df66backed No1c228,479$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc82e…0d6abacked No2c227,227$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5483…cd6ebacked No1c226,834$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc6…7a4dbacked No0c224,167$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36aa…1c5bbacked No2c224,084$3,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,930.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed No1c221,064$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.0480%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11e0…7534backed No1c219,159$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4fd…5bd7backed No1c218,225$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbc…ed7cbacked No2c217,014$3,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,579.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc186…7920backed No5c209,156$9,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,93110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x343b…f8f4backed No0c207,000$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5c8…e603backed No0c200,836$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe8…eee1backed No1c200,362$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778a…b405backed No3c200,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,80040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed No1c199,950$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.74728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-59.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f0…719ebacked No1c196,000$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x872c…5f34backed No1c192,681$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x680c…799bbacked No2c192,087$3,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,255.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.