TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2023…2d55

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
249
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Serie A, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 55 out of 100; worst Movies at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$375.58
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$493Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+149.7%+$737.28
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.75
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$119.87
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$613Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$612.95
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.39
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,142.69
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$3,036Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,036.07
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,406Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,406.14
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,966Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,966.35
Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$366.49
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$230.63
Trump signs national abortion ban?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$884Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$884.46
Trump declassifies Diddy list?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.09
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$649.23
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$312.83
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$919Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$919.23
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$355.71
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$729Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$728.64
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$4,064Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+61.7%+$2,508.58
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+127.6%+$137.93
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$17.42
Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+495.2%+$446.78
Was JFK assassination an inside job?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$473Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$472.8
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$323.96
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT3828.9%11 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-26.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+284.3%+$592.34
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,027Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+230.3%+$2,365.18
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.73
Will the Greens be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.87
Will the AFD be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$701Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$700.85
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,745Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,744.85
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$613Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$613.03
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$133.18
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+165.7%+$149.2
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.19
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+113.2%+$106.52
Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$714Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$713.62
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$230.27
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,398Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+273.7%+$6,565.7
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$719Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$719.12
Canada election called before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$233.89
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$279.05
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+76.7%+$30.57
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+151.8%+$579.21
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,912Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,911.62
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,293Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+90.1%+$1,165.41
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$3,769Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,769.32
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$128.13
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+50.8%+$151.85
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+84.9%+$102.61
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT387.9%3 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$260.46
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$990Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+288%+$2,850.91
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.8
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$266.18
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$365.38
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$164.5
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$219.94
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+90.6%+$287.37
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$560.69
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$857Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$857.12
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$469.52
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,113.19
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.14
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$149.99
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$213.57
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$249.98
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,899.78
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.51
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$250.31
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.79
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.09
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$664Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$664.49
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$115.46
Will Evan Mobley win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$123.55
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+69.4%+$92.85
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+42.2%+$59.76
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$414.33
Will Nicolas Jackson be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.19
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.79
Arsenal wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,833.28
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,583Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+27.9%+$441.83
Manchester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$538Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$538.44
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,526Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,525.92
Aston Villa wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$349.44
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.77
Bournemouth wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$315.05
Fulham wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$104.12
Brentford wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$388.07
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$252.57
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$380.11
Manchester United wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$199.85
Everton wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$313.94
West Ham United wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$49.91
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$158.06
Leicester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Southampton wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$480.8
All 21 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT205%1 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$981Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+1,690.9%+$16,591.07
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$194.59
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$282.98
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.35
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$587Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$586.73
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$680Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$679.64
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,939Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,938.53
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.22
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$163.95
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$298.66
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,913Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,913.19
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$195.36
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$55.54
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$1,118.95
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$37.45
Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$49.98
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$45.16
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$148.64
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$290.52
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$236.7
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$904Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$904.42
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$801Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$800.58
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$3,056Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,056.15
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$547Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$546.78
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,213Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,212.55
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,893Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$1,893.4
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$3,774Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$3,773.79
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$249.28
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$159.88
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$98.95
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$762Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$761.74
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,942Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,941.95
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$313.27
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+107.6%+$328.28
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$510.31
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$440.18
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$299.61
Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$100.61
Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$230.95
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$7,418Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$7,418.04
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+91.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+928.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+135.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+159.7%+$546.22
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$535Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+110.7%+$591.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leon Draisaitl win the Hart Trophy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+100%+$50
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul fight Logan Paul next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.23
Will Jake Paul fight Canelo Alvarez next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,317Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT+29.4%+$387.06
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,524Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,523.55
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.