AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02eb6fb967ef78120c601757549794474640d4e1082beaf88dc9c0d34fc825ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $721,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $519,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $721,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x001c…43f2backed Yes | 39c | 88,263$34,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,422.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…4badbacked No | 61c | 88,263$53,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,422.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 16c | 32,137$5,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,287.74 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes | 2c | 26,301$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +261.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc055…1299backed Yes | 0c | 25,223$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 24c | 22,631$5,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,425.53 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13d…47f5backed Yes | 1c | 18,484$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 13,346$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.92 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 9c | 12,800$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 5c | 12,565$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.98 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…42d6backed Yes | 8c | 12,051$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.55 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4614…1c98backed Yes | 1c | 11,323$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 11,017$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.11 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…c208backed Yes | 36c | 9,597$3,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,477.43 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 33c | 8,211$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,672.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3899…452ebacked No | 66c | 7,729$5,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,657.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…61d8backed Yes | 1c | 7,666$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…b2a5backed Yes | 4c | 6,000$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 4c | 5,812$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.28 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 20c | 5,402$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.91 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 4,495$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 39c | 4,495$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.35 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8d…d880backed No | 71c | 4,241$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 26c | 4,074$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.47 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 44c | 3,700$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,675$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 18c | 3,630$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.4 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 23c | 3,273$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,270$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,225$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 41c | 2,896$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 41c | 2,663$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.83 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…c86dbacked Yes | 34c | 2,655$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…1772backed Yes | 1c | 2,349$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 2c | 2,302$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…65c9backed Yes | 23c | 2,235$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…0fe0backed Yes | 1c | 2,042$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…dafcbacked Yes | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 27c | 1,999$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.81 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,933$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed Yes | 51c | 1,910$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba3…3adfbacked Yes | 51c | 1,815$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,659$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 51c | 1,608$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed No | 62c | 1,562$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,526$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 50c | 1,523$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.3 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…f6debacked No | 35c | 1,500$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 7c | 1,468$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 68c | 1,463$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 54c | 1,308$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.53 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae97…7eabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,257$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 59c | 1,180$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.76 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 1,141$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7121…afd2backed Yes | 5c | 1,137$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 44c | 1,098$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.66 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,090$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.72 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,079$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…063fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,056$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…f052backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…89f3backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 35c | 999.25$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.18 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…f499backed Yes | 2c | 979.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 56c | 945.16$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.87 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 22c | 943.28$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 43c | 874.53$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecc…24c7backed Yes | 3c | 859$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked No | 49c | 845.68$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 13c | 750$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…2ca3backed Yes | 22c | 741.27$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 2c | 734.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…fb3bbacked Yes | 9c | 728$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 32c | 722.92$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…983dbacked Yes | 16c | 705.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 76c | 700$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 55c | 699.96$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.98 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5b09backed Yes | 3c | 682.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 60c | 662.77$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 57c | 658.19$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.79 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 651.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Yes | 42c | 639.26$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.01 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9c…09ddbacked Yes | 38c | 630.59$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 57c | 601$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…639fbacked Yes | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…3b85backed No | 66c | 599.31$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c96…f26abacked Yes | 40c | 594.94$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 590$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.48 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…b038backed Yes | 6c | 583.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed Yes | 69c | 574.69$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 9c | 555$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…0a49backed Yes | 3c | 525.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 38c | 493.83$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 39c | 484.18$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…c391backed No | 67c | 448.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 3c | 435.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes | 18c | 433.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 3c | 425.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +251.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.