TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$721,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$519,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $721,150 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x001c…43f2backed Yes39c88,263$34,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,422.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecb…4badbacked No61c88,263$53,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,422.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked Yes16c32,137$5,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,287.743327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes2c26,301$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.991717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+261.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc055…1299backed Yes0c25,223$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes24c22,631$5,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,425.536328.6%18 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa13d…47f5backed Yes1c18,484$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c13,346$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.926291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes9c12,800$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1144146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes5c12,565$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.986716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbb…42d6backed Yes8c12,051$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.551711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid+154.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4614…1c98backed Yes1c11,323$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.781216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-55.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c11,017$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.112560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f2…c208backed Yes36c9,597$3,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,477.431323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes33c8,211$2,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,672.34728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3899…452ebacked No66c7,729$5,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,657.43825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4391…61d8backed Yes1c7,666$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9cc…b2a5backed Yes4c6,000$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.57825%2 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+81.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes4c5,812$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.284045%18 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes20c5,402$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.916011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes1c4,495$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.622110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No39c4,495$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.352740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c8d…d880backed No71c4,241$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.06366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes26c4,074$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.4724315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes44c3,700$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.251822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc98a…2a0cbacked Yes2c3,675$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes18c3,630$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.49915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes23c3,273$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.92922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes1c3,270$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.351225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes2c3,225$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes41c2,896$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.841833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+93.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes41c2,663$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.831872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+42.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8aa6…c86dbacked Yes34c2,655$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…1772backed Yes1c2,349$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes2c2,302$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.565817.2%10 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00a…65c9backed Yes23c2,235$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8528…d446backed Yes48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d16…0fe0backed Yes1c2,042$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x259b…dafcbacked Yes38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.81428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes27c1,999$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.8111030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c1,933$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7957426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…9d12backed Yes51c1,910$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.11241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba3…3adfbacked Yes51c1,815$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes12c1,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes12c1,659$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.15650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed No51c1,608$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed No62c1,562$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes10c1,526$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.32520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes50c1,523$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.33627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3335…f6debacked No35c1,500$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed Yes7c1,468$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Yes68c1,463$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes54c1,308$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.532326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae97…7eabbacked Yes1c1,257$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes59c1,180$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.764117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c1,141$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.68695.8%4 W · 65 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7121…afd2backed Yes5c1,137$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+77.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes44c1,098$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.664231%13 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes25c1,090$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.726659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes4c1,079$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.428150.6%41 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc2d…063fbacked Yes4c1,056$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.781631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+185.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Yes22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19be…f052backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f1…89f3backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes35c999.25$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.186829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x06af…f499backed Yes2c979.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No56c945.16$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.8710338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes22c943.28$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.41723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes43c874.53$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.051040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ecc…24c7backed Yes3c859$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked No49c845.68$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.341631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes13c750$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.52128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-56.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7012…2ca3backed Yes22c741.27$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+614.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes2c734.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.225735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4a…fb3bbacked Yes9c728$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2260%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes32c722.92$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.612250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3de…983dbacked Yes16c705.21$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed No76c700$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes55c699.96$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.988644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d78…5b09backed Yes3c682.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+102.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes60c662.77$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No57c658.19$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.793455.9%19 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+71.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c651.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.851,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked Yes42c639.26$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.011414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a9c…09ddbacked Yes38c630.59$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.38922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+135.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes57c601$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.382040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16cf…639fbacked Yes14c600$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca1…3b85backed No66c599.31$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c96…f26abacked Yes40c594.94$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No71c590$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.486041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0acf…b038backed Yes6c583.28$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed Yes69c574.69$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.081957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes9c555$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.952512%3 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7839…0a49backed Yes3c525.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes38c493.83$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.66825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc028…9349backed Yes39c484.18$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef9c…c391backed No67c448.01$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.01757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes3c435.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+138.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes18c433.46$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e20…fd40backed Yes3c425.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.63450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+251.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.