TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc028…9349

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
129
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2025, EDT6046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mets vs. Piratesbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$237.95
Red Sox vs. Angelsbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,061Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,061.42
Rangers vs. Oriolesbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+119.9%+$579.24
Braves vs. Metsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$384.68
Orioles vs. Yankeesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$479Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$479.32
Tigers vs. Raysbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$239.79
Red Sox vs. Giantsbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$104
Orioles vs. Yankeesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$450
Mariners vs. Cubsbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$180.78
Padres vs. Dodgersbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$430
Angels vs. Yankeesbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.17
Guardians vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.6
Angels vs. Yankeesbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$244.83
Phillies vs. Marlinsbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$49.92
Red Sox vs. Marinersbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$322.71
Red Sox vs. Marinersbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$263.85
Brewers vs. Cubsbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$56
Phillies vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT+162.7%+$183.83
Red Sox vs. Marinersbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$495Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$774.32
Giants vs. Dodgersbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$213.53
Padres vs. Diamondbacksbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$282.45
Reds vs. Tigersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$315.82
Twins vs. Astrosbacked Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$343.52
Rockies vs. Bravesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$243.05
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2025, EDT4515.6%7 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.46
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.22
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$209.73
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+900%+$208.76
Will Elon tweet 170–184 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.01
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.15
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.9
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+228.5%+$442.61
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.69
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.59
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.34
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$34.88
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.82
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.42
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$173.55
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+448.7%+$353.26
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$378.97
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.66
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+264.5%+$966.18
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$175.55
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$264.71
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.7
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$268.79
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+39.1%+$120.7
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$188.83
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$94.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milanbacked PSG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$139.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.