Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb17513ee9065c3a46d535bf22789f1b77a1c3b4bb93f265b0a113658f0f6889f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $812,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $534,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $812,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe558…99bebacked Yes | 1c | 137,886$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +223%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes | 0c | 61,073$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +428.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 58,099$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…0576backed Yes | 2c | 18,436$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 2cpaid | +726.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 8c | 13,347$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.81 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 11,359$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.3 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 2c | 9,987$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…2869backed Yes | 1c | 9,361$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 4cpaid | +424.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 9,107$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.35 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 8,973$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.67 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…1395backed Yes | 0c | 8,860$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +313.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 5c | 8,351$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 7,250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 2c | 7,207$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,944$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 6,706$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,366$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 9c | 6,358$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.32 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 10c | 6,231$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.58 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,127$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.7 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,463$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.92 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 7c | 3,222$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.96 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 1c | 3,141$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5503…ad02backed Yes | 1c | 2,913$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 1c | 2,844$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,818$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.52 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…59b8backed Yes | 1c | 2,439$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,356$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…2cf0backed Yes | 4c | 2,268$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b30…ec9ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,128$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +978.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 0c | 2,001$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,838$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 4c | 1,600$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…e63bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,585$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5e…a508backed Yes | 8c | 1,496$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 4c | 1,483$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…3358backed Yes | 1c | 1,279$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,269$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,243$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,243$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 3c | 1,156$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…abf0backed Yes | 1c | 1,133$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…602cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,096$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,037$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…4745backed Yes | 3c | 1,023$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,010$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 5c | 987.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 13c | 941.74$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes | 22c | 920.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 6c | 892$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 4c | 860.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 4c | 831.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…4e6bbacked Yes | 2c | 823.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +792.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 4c | 806.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 5c | 801.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 1c | 799.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…b185backed Yes | 6c | 799.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 17c | 760.69$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.66 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 5c | 750$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de7…bbb8backed Yes | 4c | 748.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…9301backed Yes | 8c | 732.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 3c | 724$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 6c | 708.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652a…d859backed Yes | 5c | 703.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +279.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…713ebacked Yes | 3c | 691.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…954fbacked Yes | 1c | 688.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…ea8fbacked Yes | 1c | 688.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 19c | 680.43$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 3c | 646.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 2c | 558.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 555.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 2c | 495.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Yes | 3c | 479.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 12c | 477.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfd…d7abbacked Yes | 2c | 446.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad55…0ea7backed Yes | 3c | 425.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…b534backed Yes | 3c | 400.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…8112backed Yes | 5c | 349.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 6c | 321$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…66b8backed Yes | 15c | 259$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d6…4cb4backed Yes | 17c | 240$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71b…7517backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 18c | 196$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 16c | 188.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 14c | 161.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaea…2438backed Yes | 16c | 154.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x493e…7891backed Yes | 15c | 136.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…38f8backed Yes | 19c | 135.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.