Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd3d912d3d6795e72857e5e8a9d7b53199363567afbd421ab2aa13d7061ef56b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $262,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 16c | 16,249$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,557.13 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 13,250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 14c | 10,600$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.98 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,359$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 6c | 6,959$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.69 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 9c | 6,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 16c | 5,355$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.68 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,352$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.58 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 14c | 4,037$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.91 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 8c | 4,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 23c | 3,957$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.89 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 24c | 3,905$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.33 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 25c | 3,312$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 12c | 3,168$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.44 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 17c | 2,777$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.66 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 13c | 2,340$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 20c | 2,202$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.5 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 13c | 2,200$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…6241backed Yes | 10c | 1,853$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.78 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 22c | 1,815$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 10c | 1,770$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.37 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 1,664$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.44 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 15c | 1,584$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,443$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.16 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 26c | 1,382$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.1 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…2869backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 4cpaid | +424.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 8c | 1,309$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,304$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 13c | 1,254$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,247$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.52 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 7c | 1,224$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,135$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 1,129$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 25c | 1,093$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.4 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,085$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.15 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 20c | 1,064$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…3290backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 11c | 997$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 13c | 995.07$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.06 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…58dabacked Yes | 20c | 971.94$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 899.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…5cb2backed Yes | 12c | 854.45$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +612.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 16c | 825$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 23c | 823.85$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 25c | 811.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…f6a9backed Yes | 19c | 772.9$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 13c | 715.05$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 8c | 678.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…8a48backed Yes | 17c | 670$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 15c | 667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 644$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af8…21b0backed Yes | 13c | 572.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0596…0008backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 554.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 24c | 551.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 531.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 24c | 527.37$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 15c | 513.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…53d8backed Yes | 12c | 508.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 5c | 434.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 4c | 421.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 13c | 400$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 26c | 377.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 12c | 364.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078a…d3edbacked Yes | 17c | 361.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 24c | 349.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…1148backed Yes | 28c | 343.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…714fbacked Yes | 13c | 340.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 9c | 330$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…c91ebacked Yes | 27c | 322.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 24c | 314.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 18c | 307.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 19c | 301.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…226ebacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…66b8backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71b…7517backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…22b0backed Yes | 16c | 299.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5f…e82ebacked Yes | 14c | 229.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…ead6backed Yes | 17c | 208.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 10c | 205.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…a06abacked Yes | 28c | 205.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…30b7backed Yes | 20c | 201.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…3055backed Yes | 20c | 185$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 9c | 184$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed No | 75c | 165$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278c…3473backed Yes | 27c | 159.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 13c | 158.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 18c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.