TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xab26…9656

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
519
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
18

Best Category: World Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 61 out of 100; worst NBA at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT26224%63 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 262 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+94.2%+$9.7
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.74
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$25.2
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.62
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$10.27
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$22.3
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.6
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.07
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$21.7
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+31.4%+$16.73
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+123.2%+$27.6
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.99
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+75%+$42.84
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+36.7%+$5.37
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+81.8%+$9
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+92.3%+$9.6
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+74.8%+$21.4
Showing 25 of 262 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST4156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+127%+$177.44
Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+52.6%+$48.25
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$77
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 29, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$11.89
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+199.6%+$35.31
Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+57.9%+$440
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$68
Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+50.5%+$35.5
Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$46
Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$95
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Australia before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+166.6%+$157.91
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$235.09
Will Trump create External Revenue Service before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.4
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Trump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+289.1%+$28.98
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$20.44
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+158.3%+$49.76
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+29.3%+$68
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$237
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT4035%14 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$175.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$86.2
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 February 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+72.4%+$12.6
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+108.3%+$26
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$96.4
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 January 26-1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$33.28
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 19-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$44.8
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$319.3
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$142.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 29-January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$118.88
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$84.17
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$155.23
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.9%+$44.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$180
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$56
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$49
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$64.54
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+34%+$38.1
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+41.8%+$11.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+69.4%+$106.48
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,450Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+72.4%+$1,050
Will Bitcoin dip to $98,000 November 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$56.92
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT2864.3%18 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$7.7
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$7.3
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.7
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$4.17
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 60°F or higher on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+71.4%+$12.5
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$5.3
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$24.35
Will there be 14-16 inches of snow in NYC in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$174
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.61
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+66.7%+$43.5
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$52
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$12
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+53.8%+$35
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$187.4
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$40
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+46.4%+$158.5
US strike on Syria by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+166%+$31.2
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.25
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.5
Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.5
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT+53.4%+$10.44
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$120.79
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+113.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+458%+$82.08
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+510.8%+$585.4
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+122.7%+$55.1
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$19.2
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.7
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+400%+$80
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$63
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+237.1%+$211
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$608.19
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25.9%+$61.8
Will Trump congratulate Canada election winner by Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,227Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+30.4%+$373.1
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.27
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$677Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$677.35
South Korean President impeached in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+65.1%+$276
All 15 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+36.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Islam Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Dricus Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+453.5%+$122.9
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+212.5%+$68
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+51.5%+$17
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silvabacked Mitchell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Whittaker vs. Chimaevbacked Whittaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$34
Magomedov vs. Petrosyanbacked Magomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Du Plessis vs. Adesanyabacked Adesanya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$40
Kara-France vs. Ercegbacked Kara-France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT+212.5%+$47.6
Gamrot vs. Hookerbacked Gamrot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$34.9
Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruikbacked Tuivasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$14
Jingliang vs. Pratesbacked Prates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
All 14 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$119.5
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$43.49
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+306.5%+$188.5
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+174.7%+$476.99
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+47.1%+$64
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$233.64
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$452.17
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$17.58
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$39
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90 and 94?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 95 and 97?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.26
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 84?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT+168.8%+$62.79
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Meta announce WhatsApp sale in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.5
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$44.54
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+85.2%+$23
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+54.6%+$71.22
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$189
Will Musk say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will Musk say "Mars" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$82
Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$26
Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$72
Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$180
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$13.6
Raiders vs. Panthersbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Browns vs. Giantsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$13.4
Buccaneers vs. Broncosbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Titans vs. Packersbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.4
Saints vs. Eaglesbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.4
Dolphins vs. Billsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$37
49ers vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$78.47
Lions vs. Ramsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT+54.3%+$88
Seahawks vs. Broncosbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT+72.4%+$16.8
Bears vs. Titansbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT+153.2%+$24.2
Chiefs vs. Ravensbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2024, EDT+74%+$80.8
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$396.1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$22
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$662Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+55.2%+$365.84
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$111.82
Will Putin meet with Trump before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$153.4
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.6
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$106
All 10 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.77
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$30.7
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+78.1%+$96.5
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.78
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$352.13
Will the New York Yankees win the World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$38.12
World Series: Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 3backed Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$11
NLCS: Dodgers vs. Mets Game 6backed Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT+81.2%+$22.4
ALCS: Guardians vs. Yankees Game 5backed Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$164.79
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$14.08
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$425.9
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.9
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+31.6%+$7.2
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+59.6%+$11.2
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+42.4%+$178.65
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$63
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$30
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$64.4
Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+58.7%+$37
All 9 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2025, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Chess — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Lakers vs. Cavaliersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Hawks vs. Lakersbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$60.2
Mavericks vs. Jazzbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$34.2
All 4 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+104.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$387Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$604.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$396
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.