TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,017 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x390d…350bbacked Yes11c22,319$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,406.94837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x741e…2f80backed Yes31c9,871$3,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,108.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0152…bab4backed Yes15c8,914$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2b5…5888backed Yes33c8,674$2,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,862.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de4…b516backed Yes18c7,750$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb067…cc17backed Yes50c7,077$3,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,512.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed No59c6,561$3,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,691.26633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bfd…b5f3backed Yes6c5,594$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a12…01cebacked Yes32c5,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1c…8c6bbacked Yes34c4,809$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.87250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No68c4,800$3,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8001717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-71.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed Yes18c3,668$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.71330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…a83cbacked Yes30c3,489$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4987…804bbacked Yes28c3,427$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07a9…32c8backed Yes16c3,141$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…59d0backed Yes10c2,871$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed No74c2,714$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.154122%9 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a69…b5ccbacked Yes19c2,626$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de0…88a4backed Yes30c2,269$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No79c2,111$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-79%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63dd…c15fbacked Yes33c2,097$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9059…a4fabacked Yes22c2,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb231…99a4backed Yes21c1,738$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6507…4c1fbacked Yes15c1,730$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed Yes12c1,631$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a51…cd1cbacked Yes16c1,498$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5380…28debacked Yes32c1,300$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cd1…b557backed Yes33c1,226$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc385…5039backed Yes31c1,100$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x719d…4e73backed Yes4c1,071$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes22c1,042$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.424010%4 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes15c1,033$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502425%6 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes12c1,006$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.31333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685e…bb41backed No68c972.52$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes26c812.5$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0060…eb25backed Yes36c799.15$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes25c777.31$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae65…d7cdbacked Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x49b8…762dbacked No67c750$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d6…4973backed No70c700$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x670b…e4afbacked Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2b5cbacked No68c629.23$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c3…dacdbacked Yes29c627$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes10c622.9$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.434639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf363…45e0backed Yes15c613.76$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bef…5d3dbacked Yes17c588.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes13c575$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.371225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes29c573.7$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.921533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes16c567$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.583435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x535f…5ce5backed Yes22c553.51$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c435.41$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8311011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19c5…53fcbacked Yes25c424$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No71c350$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.51637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e32…8530backed Yes30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05f…8ecbbacked Yes32c325.66$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ea…81e7backed Yes16c315.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes29c311.21$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.71118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-64%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb318…85ebbacked Yes32c307.25$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc3c…e38bbacked Yes14c306.54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c304.62$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.58732.2%28 W · 59 L-10.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x126f…7137backed Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes31c303.03$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.946137.7%23 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Yes32c301.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…2c75backed Yes31c297.97$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d6…af8cbacked Yes16c282$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes31c261$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…beadbacked Yes27c257.53$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.66714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes10c254.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes31c250$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2290…3a79backed Yes8c248.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf546…f7fabacked Yes31c240$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b2…47e9backed No70c240$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b19…eb2ebacked No69c217.39$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0bb…36e9backed Yes32c215.63$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes19c209.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes14c205.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.682015%3 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid+19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3660%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e4…1371backed No69c198.55$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70d9…e95abacked Yes32c196.88$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes17c195.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.77850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5697…cddfbacked Yes16c188.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a09…00cabacked Yes31c174$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x691e…1a64backed No69c174$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.94366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc5…689cbacked Yes33c165.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…bdabbacked Yes10c158.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1459…ab65backed Yes33c152.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…c86dbacked Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc75…1077backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fe…1d08backed Yes15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9fb…e35fbacked No70c141.43$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x439a…6aecbacked No70c140$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1b6…1370backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0c…7fc2backed Yes26c130$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa50e…66ebbacked Yes32c125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed Yes11c119.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78d2…b978backed Yes16c118.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.