Chess · resolved market
Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x443630bf3224d9b75537fb1bd7601d99e6a88cebe50b841020e51cec89d7a446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x390d…350bbacked Yes | 11c | 22,319$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,406.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Yes | 31c | 9,871$3,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,108.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…bab4backed Yes | 15c | 8,914$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b5…5888backed Yes | 33c | 8,674$2,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,862.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…b516backed Yes | 18c | 7,750$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…cc17backed Yes | 50c | 7,077$3,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,512.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 59c | 6,561$3,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,691.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed Yes | 6c | 5,594$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Yes | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…8c6bbacked Yes | 34c | 4,809$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 68c | 4,800$3,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 18c | 3,668$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 30c | 3,489$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4987…804bbacked Yes | 28c | 3,427$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…32c8backed Yes | 16c | 3,141$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…59d0backed Yes | 10c | 2,871$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 74c | 2,714$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.15 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a69…b5ccbacked Yes | 19c | 2,626$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…88a4backed Yes | 30c | 2,269$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 79c | 2,111$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c15fbacked Yes | 33c | 2,097$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…a4fabacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…99a4backed Yes | 21c | 1,738$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6507…4c1fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,730$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 12c | 1,631$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…cd1cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,498$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Yes | 32c | 1,300$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 33c | 1,226$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…5039backed Yes | 31c | 1,100$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 4c | 1,071$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 22c | 1,042$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.42 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 15c | 1,033$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes | 12c | 1,006$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed No | 68c | 972.52$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 26c | 812.5$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…eb25backed Yes | 36c | 799.15$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 25c | 777.31$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…d7cdbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked No | 67c | 750$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…4973backed No | 70c | 700$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc0…2b5cbacked No | 68c | 629.23$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c3…dacdbacked Yes | 29c | 627$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 10c | 622.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed Yes | 15c | 613.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…5d3dbacked Yes | 17c | 588.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 13c | 575$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes | 29c | 573.7$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 16c | 567$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed Yes | 22c | 553.51$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 435.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…53fcbacked Yes | 25c | 424$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 71c | 350$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…8530backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…8ecbbacked Yes | 32c | 325.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…81e7backed Yes | 16c | 315.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 29c | 311.21$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb318…85ebbacked Yes | 32c | 307.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked Yes | 14c | 306.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 304.62$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 303.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Yes | 32c | 301.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…2c75backed Yes | 31c | 297.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d6…af8cbacked Yes | 16c | 282$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes | 31c | 261$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…beadbacked Yes | 27c | 257.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 10c | 254.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2290…3a79backed Yes | 8c | 248.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf546…f7fabacked Yes | 31c | 240$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…47e9backed No | 70c | 240$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b19…eb2ebacked No | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…36e9backed Yes | 32c | 215.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 19c | 209.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 14c | 205.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…1371backed No | 69c | 198.55$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…e95abacked Yes | 32c | 196.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes | 17c | 195.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked Yes | 16c | 188.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…00cabacked Yes | 31c | 174$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691e…1a64backed No | 69c | 174$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc5…689cbacked Yes | 33c | 165.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 10c | 158.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1459…ab65backed Yes | 33c | 152.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…c86dbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…1077backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fb…e35fbacked No | 70c | 141.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439a…6aecbacked No | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b6…1370backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0c…7fc2backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50e…66ebbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 11c | 119.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…b978backed Yes | 16c | 118.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship?this page
- Will Hans Moke Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.