TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a12…01cebacked No69c11,544$8,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,529.34540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes21c10,271$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca4…fec2backed Yes27c5,080$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes30c4,000$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa7cc…4952backed No67c3,199$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb067…cc17backed Yes19c2,817$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0152…bab4backed Yes12c2,369$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes31c1,952$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.546713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes25c1,892$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed Yes15c1,803$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes34c1,608$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed No71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.33580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+79.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes30c1,285$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-79%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x481c…73eebacked No72c1,100$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca9d…07f7backed Yes31c967.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes21c961.69$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7760%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae43…5701backed Yes31c911.29$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes36c901.62$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.37850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52c…6d91backed Yes37c854.99$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de0…88a4backed Yes22c802.68$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes29c797.64$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes27c775$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes35c677.71$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.98850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes25c650$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed No75c646.67$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0060…eb25backed Yes33c598.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc87c…46b7backed Yes38c555.55$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe661…ade4backed Yes29c546.11$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes26c514$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.641225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca6…6b28backed Yes30c500$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes23c500$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yes28c449.64$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.85825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d1…cd16backed No72c410.13$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6af…e12fbacked Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes36c377.78$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc733…6293backed Yes28c372.25$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9588…d801backed Yes30c333.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ca…0180backed Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6b…a799backed No68c282.96$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.551275%9 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+35.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5554…498dbacked Yes37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed No75c253.93$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.033100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+97%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62fe…1d08backed Yes24c250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff0d…3d76backed Yes28c210$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes8c209.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.592015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc385…5039backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be6…64f9backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes36c199.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.981154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf2e…d8c4backed Yes31c187.42$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes18c184.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.621533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d44…d9adbacked Yes28c175$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fe…c728backed Yes29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf931…12eebacked Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes27c154.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…3b80backed Yes29c150$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…beadbacked Yes26c148.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.74714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes35c145.7$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes37c136.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5642…60c8backed Yes37c120$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2050…feefbacked Yes42c119.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd76…6c23backed Yes27c110$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb276…d4debacked No71c105$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d59…d561backed Yes27c103.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb628…95c0backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c101$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.148732.2%28 W · 59 L-10.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8e…7fc1backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad45…6fffbacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes14c99.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-23.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb6…256dbacked Yes21c96.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+89.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a46…195bbacked Yes28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…3a64backed Yes58c85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes23c84.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2341…3535backed Yes36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6445…4ec0backed No60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes14c76.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.782015%3 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid+19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x157e…93c1backed Yes33c76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…bdabbacked Yes31c75.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb59e…d7f6backed Yes28c74.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd934…b664backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b70…20a3backed Yes26c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd834…6239backed No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f14…4338backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed No63c68.01$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc8…a401backed No74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc53a…f7d3backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcb04…6a41backed No75c56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b9…6df8backed Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e6…25d2backed No72c55.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…3743backed Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8ffd…f6abbacked Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a29…8864backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a6…38c0backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce3…9236backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.