TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x02a1…dd72

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
225
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 66 out of 100 (+0.15 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 66 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT7356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 73 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$445
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.22
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.45
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.69
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.88
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,551Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,550.84
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$6,336Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+134.3%+$8,506.64
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$770
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,414Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+74.2%+$1,048.76
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,360Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$639.86
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$3,240Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,239.99
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$770
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$613Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+400.9%+$2,457.97
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.14
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$528Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+73.7%+$389.24
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+209.3%+$1,214.12
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+108.3%+$1,040
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$526Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$525.93
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,096Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,096.06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$6,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$6,032.16
Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+81.8%+$81
Showing 25 of 73 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5442.6%23 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$4,900Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$2,100
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,560Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$1,440
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$940Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$1,060
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$7,980Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+100.5%+$8,019.96
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,917Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+207.7%+$6,059.45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,075Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,074.92
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,770Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,770
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$837Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$837.13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,239.98
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$3,721Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,720.79
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$647Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$646.92
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$240
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$355.5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$364
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,518Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,518.2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$115
Khamenei seen in public by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$315
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+75.4%+$129
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$505Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$504.51
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,540Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.9%+$1,214.59
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$200
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$301
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$11.03
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$75
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+49.3%+$198
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$304.93
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$229.99
Will Mahmoud Abbas attend the UN General Assembly?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.67
Will Donald Trump disparage Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.25
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+419.2%+$722.61
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.34
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$918Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$918.47
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.11
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$50
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.34
Will China counter tariff the U.S. in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$76.33
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?backed Zelenskyy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$813Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+122.9%+$999.1
Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$99
Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in his first week? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+55.8%+$174.62
Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in his first week? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$910Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+64.8%+$590
Will Trump impose tariffs on China in his first week? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+85.8%+$431.27
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$731Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$731.26
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$170
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$180
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2250%11 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+94.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
World Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$496
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$937Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$937.5
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$102
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+539.3%+$1,076.03
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$217.25
Yoon in jail before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$165
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+1,450.8%+$2,211.12
Georgescu banned from Romania election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$109.41
Lula out before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$318.35
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$520
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$51.12
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,727Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+37.7%+$651.25
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,808Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,807.66
Maduro out in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,650Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+52.9%+$873.67
South Korean President impeached in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+190.7%+$492
Will GD win a majority in Georgia parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$150
Will Brazil unban X before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$727Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+210.5%+$1,529.73
X banned in Brazil by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT+392.3%+$223.6
Will National Rally win the most seats in the National Assembly?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$75
National Rally coalition wins majority of seats in French Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2024, EDT+37%+$15.93
Will Nigel Farage win election to UK parliament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Reform win 7+ seats in UK Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$549Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2024, EDT+77.5%+$425.95
All 22 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$3,015Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$3,014.83
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$340.99
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,124Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+92.2%+$1,958.59
Maduro leaves Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$145
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,080Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$1,320
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$277.05
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$38.58
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$317.5
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$308
All 11 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-67.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Poker — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2025, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+79.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Chess — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+159.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT+242%+$217.81
Euro 2024: Favorite fails to advance beyond group stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Is $DJT real?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2024, EDT+32.5%+$24.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 18, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$11
Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$127.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$366.69
US inflation >0.0% from May to June 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$350
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,533Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+182.9%+$2,804.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$104.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$103.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2024 July hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$3,169Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$3,169.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.