World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,456,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,658,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,456,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 7,321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed Yes | 33c | 2,688,297$876,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876,271.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 562,331$2,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,878.89 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…c7c7backed No | 69c | 405,157$280,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124,204.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc583…bd46backed No | 66c | 285,030$187,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97,960.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…28b3backed Yes | 35c | 270,843$95,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,355.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…64e4backed Yes | 2c | 220,341$3,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,994 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 75c | 174,765$130,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,475.63 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d1…32b8backed No | 64c | 173,923$111,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,812.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b90…c44ebacked No | 63c | 169,830$106,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,837.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2ab0backed No | 67c | 161,955$108,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,671.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…8b8bbacked Yes | 38c | 130,492$49,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,984.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed No | 71c | 128,347$91,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,891.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b8…7e29backed Yes | 42c | 126,954$52,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,844.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked No | 78c | 123,729$96,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,052.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…1711backed Yes | 39c | 115,994$44,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,800.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde92…5e10backed Yes | 30c | 115,365$34,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,938.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 1c | 114,504$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 27c | 113,000$30,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,680 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Yes | 46c | 111,894$51,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,015.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -81%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 30c | 110,230$33,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,138.82 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a8…bdc6backed Yes | 41c | 107,733$44,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,289.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…15efbacked Yes | 28c | 107,212$30,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 2c | 104,862$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,411.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 64c | 103,000$66,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,959.95 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d1…d24fbacked Yes | 25c | 94,177$23,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,119.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…4981backed Yes | 30c | 92,711$27,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,375.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…8f7ebacked Yes | 16c | 91,661$14,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,975 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…4dd1backed Yes | 35c | 91,346$32,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,062.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc920…e8bbbacked Yes | 29c | 91,174$26,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,602.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe48…683fbacked Yes | 37c | 90,550$33,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,227.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…3bfdbacked No | 63c | 83,527$52,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,588.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…ab64backed Yes | 42c | 82,659$34,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,326.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x301d…0d1dbacked Yes | 12c | 81,756$9,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,986.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 31c | 80,515$25,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,182.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07f…7f58backed Yes | 3c | 80,413$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee66…ead4backed Yes | 35c | 78,849$27,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,725.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed Yes | 2c | 78,121$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked No | 76c | 77,751$59,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,676.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…7152backed No | 61c | 77,131$47,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,949.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +164.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…9056backed No | 72c | 74,889$53,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,018.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…3aa0backed No | 72c | 74,513$53,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,050.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d44…e507backed No | 62c | 72,422$45,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,222.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8615backed Yes | 34c | 72,029$24,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,729.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…109dbacked No | 69c | 71,976$49,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,986.4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 72c | 69,000$49,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,099.89 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…8348backed Yes | 26c | 68,989$17,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,613.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea45…284cbacked No | 71c | 64,354$45,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,594.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdce…3291backed Yes | 32c | 63,323$20,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,427.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 32c | 62,096$19,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,668.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5823…673fbacked No | 69c | 61,241$42,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,016.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes | 30c | 59,730$18,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,019.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 72c | 59,000$42,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,660 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3e…5c4ebacked Yes | 18c | 57,865$10,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,189.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed No | 68c | 57,656$39,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,450.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…6fadbacked Yes | 44c | 56,865$25,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,214.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 70c | 55,010$38,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,502.93 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 31c | 54,642$17,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,063.47 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 70c | 53,137$37,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,776.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 31c | 52,346$16,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,273.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…fe1ebacked Yes | 31c | 51,912$16,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,222.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…8a97backed Yes | 29c | 51,697$14,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,992 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes | 15c | 51,452$7,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,727.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…e95dbacked Yes | 31c | 51,218$15,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,625.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…04b0backed Yes | 32c | 51,129$16,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,259.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 68c | 50,534$34,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,279.32 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 20c | 50,270$9,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,974.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 78c | 48,108$37,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,680.3 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed No | 72c | 47,913$34,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,206.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 78c | 47,685$37,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,515.84 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a0…0070backed Yes | 31c | 47,264$14,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,821.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked No | 67c | 46,700$31,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,503.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…c7d7backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…a68dbacked Yes | 24c | 43,056$10,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b2…1721backed No | 66c | 42,025$27,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,102.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…9db1backed Yes | 1c | 40,969$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f771backed Yes | 0c | 40,833$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…b7e2backed Yes | 7c | 39,365$2,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,733 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…5e32backed Yes | 32c | 39,282$12,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,650.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…784ebacked Yes | 0c | 38,767$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 53c | 38,643$20,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,192.72 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x150e…ee23backed Yes | 6c | 38,292$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked No | 68c | 38,050$25,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,103.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…c320backed Yes | 37c | 37,936$13,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,901.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…d3cdbacked Yes | 22c | 36,853$8,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,040.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7204…c386backed Yes | 30c | 35,366$10,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,610 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c7…1a5dbacked Yes | 16c | 35,283$5,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,645.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 71c | 35,158$24,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,350.4 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9265…2cc0backed No | 60c | 35,029$21,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,863.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 71c | 35,000$24,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,124.95 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…bc42backed Yes | 27c | 34,823$9,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,556 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 44c | 34,476$15,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,282.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6c…2200backed No | 65c | 34,472$22,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,078.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Yes | 1c | 34,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed Yes | 36c | 31,957$11,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,602.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…ecf2backed Yes | 38c | 31,949$12,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,097.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113c…454ebacked Yes | 28c | 31,774$8,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,800.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4c…57b9backed Yes | 31c | 31,624$9,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,665 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 36c | 31,578$11,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,368.18 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 30c | 31,357$9,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,359.2 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…26bfbacked Yes | 48c | 31,305$14,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,984 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?this page
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.