TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,297,943
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,157,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,297,943 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc524…75a2backed Yes0c562,962$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.9670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x840d…37ddbacked Yes0c425,070$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6421backed Yes0c373,237$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.36140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ccb…a3cabacked Yes0c360,209$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19a1…464abacked Yes0c327,034$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f14…7795backed Yes0c320,296$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…48afbacked Yes0c256,938$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x499c…d6b3backed Yes0c198,347$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Yes0c198,314$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.31130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x112a…4778backed Yes0c172,024$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc432…254bbacked Yes0c150,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d9a…9a46backed Yes0c140,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes0c136,168$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.38130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes0c132,105$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.19583.4%2 W · 56 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c128,089$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.594440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa113…65d9backed Yes0c109,407$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c108,568$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.57460%0 W · 46 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b46…1263backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4596…bbe8backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e2…9e24backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8e…c0e3backed Yes0c83,966$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9610…3441backed Yes0c65,421$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc809…62b5backed Yes0c63,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes0c61,189$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.19120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6539…c379backed Yes0c55,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15a4…8d7bbacked Yes0c52,880$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd9…5becbacked Yes0c52,500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c50,690$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.69190%0 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904f…c686backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a4…4061backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1673…df79backed Yes0c45,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c38,854$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.85550%0 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3659…0451backed Yes0c37,443$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.44360%0 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…a678backed Yes0c35,357$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.073652.8%19 W · 17 L+8.3wins+0.23per pick30cpaid+66%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xda7f…2425backed Yes0c34,130$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.581816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9998…e81bbacked Yes0c30,799$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe2…fa8ebacked Yes0c28,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7850…94bbbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e9…3cb1backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0312…bcf8backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc58…5fd0backed Yes0c25,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+68.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a0…0070backed Yes0c25,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x452a…68f0backed Yes0c23,764$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed34…a3b6backed Yes0c22,886$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2b2…d209backed Yes0c22,716$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285e…0b7dbacked Yes0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c21,224$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.711691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x902d…5835backed Yes0c20,207$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d3…e4cfbacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1df…0b67backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8eb…55c4backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…048ebacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc709…5f3abacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0692…d675backed Yes0c19,900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…b57fbacked Yes0c19,673$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a0…f3fbbacked Yes0c19,623$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7147…005abacked Yes0c19,556$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f0f…94cbbacked Yes0c19,421$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eed…d9a0backed Yes0c19,307$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2836…e13bbacked Yes0c19,307$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed7…8f7fbacked Yes0c19,295$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227b…feb9backed Yes0c19,295$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3156…d572backed Yes0c19,074$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd0b…7f3fbacked Yes0c19,074$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735b…53e3backed Yes0c19,074$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c0…0f62backed Yes0c19,041$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f4f…dd18backed Yes0c19,041$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc956…2286backed Yes0c19,041$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb367…980fbacked Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b23…1b66backed Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e6…f8b9backed Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf769…06e2backed Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9391…ad85backed Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe432…b790backed Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf65b…71fdbacked Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0650…a84fbacked Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2f2…5b4cbacked Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d4…5b02backed Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8bd…7617backed Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e34…5fc8backed Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe4…219dbacked Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e06…9269backed Yes0c18,954$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0727…ff67backed Yes0c18,894$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b67…4332backed Yes0c18,839$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda70…4cccbacked Yes0c18,839$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x823f…60b1backed Yes0c18,789$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2adf…d007backed Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x056f…ae30backed Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1dc…7ebfbacked Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5420…d70ebacked Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfff…2e55backed Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa923…fff4backed Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81bd…d72cbacked Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd18f…f8d4backed Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3010…110fbacked Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cbd…7494backed Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb86…e3e3backed Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a1…1d45backed Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81fe…fd72backed Yes0c18,767$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.