World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x068d4f079da544e312b1a7b86e2c5dd39d3fc6a0f5a21b0ec866d1ff34767839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,744,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,422,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,744,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 737 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 825,963$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.96 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02c…e959backed Yes | 0c | 592,660$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e33…8444backed Yes | 0c | 567,700$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddd…1725backed Yes | 0c | 566,900$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…5e7abacked Yes | 0c | 563,760$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1132…4613backed Yes | 0c | 560,757$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40af…db26backed Yes | 0c | 558,420$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d4…0c5bbacked Yes | 0c | 556,610$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…ee06backed Yes | 0c | 556,100$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5057…ff74backed Yes | 0c | 551,610$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9610…3441backed Yes | 0c | 404,174$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 364,618$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.61 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…2c6dbacked Yes | 0c | 339,286$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 305,101$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.1 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…b78fbacked Yes | 0c | 300,691$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585a…26ecbacked Yes | 0c | 266,360$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5847…5420backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…fa33backed Yes | 0c | 152,189$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016a…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 150,633$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…3aa0backed Yes | 0c | 150,500$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…e98abacked Yes | 0c | 145,767$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f64…6eabbacked Yes | 0c | 140,956$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked Yes | 0c | 139,589$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc58…5fd0backed Yes | 0c | 117,783$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…febbbacked Yes | 1c | 117,649$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0010…3240backed Yes | 0c | 113,695$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…f1a2backed Yes | 0c | 109,920$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e81bbacked Yes | 0c | 102,216$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 1c | 100,250$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c34…7270backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c2…f9bcbacked Yes | 1c | 89,064$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes | 1c | 82,475$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.24 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…d762backed Yes | 0c | 77,334$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…4061backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 74,595$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.04 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd0…ab8dbacked Yes | 2c | 63,298$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa404…8116backed Yes | 0c | 62,918$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 0c | 58,500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…e71bbacked Yes | 0c | 56,400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…5be4backed Yes | 0c | 54,116$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…0d9bbacked Yes | 1c | 54,063$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…ffd6backed Yes | 0c | 53,679$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 0c | 52,391$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…a497backed Yes | 1c | 51,849$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…7af4backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…35d3backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes | 0c | 48,935$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…ae44backed Yes | 0c | 46,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d2…7333backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cd…7d8cbacked Yes | 2c | 44,584$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…9e00backed Yes | 0c | 43,782$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…94bbbacked Yes | 0c | 41,180$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefed…1de3backed Yes | 0c | 39,967$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a6…0d86backed Yes | 1c | 39,011$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x352c…ac8dbacked Yes | 0c | 38,500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 35,221$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.41 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…201bbacked Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10eb…848bbacked Yes | 1c | 34,704$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.19 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 34,700$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…eb93backed Yes | 3c | 33,435$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…56e2backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…1263backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…efd8backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…9ff4backed Yes | 0c | 32,945$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 31,985$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 89 | 2.2%2 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 31,954$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.84 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…36b7backed Yes | 0c | 26,667$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fd…03b6backed Yes | 0c | 26,573$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 0c | 26,561$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…5e32backed Yes | 0c | 25,873$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…d3adbacked Yes | 2c | 25,599$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…a5e3backed Yes | 1c | 25,480$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…0ee0backed Yes | 1c | 25,418$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eab…f09ebacked Yes | 4c | 25,228$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 1c | 24,856$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.38 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85e9…3cb1backed Yes | 1c | 23,093$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed Yes | 1c | 22,550$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a0…0070backed Yes | 0c | 22,069$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…1de6backed Yes | 2c | 21,996$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570d…85a7backed Yes | 2c | 21,238$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651b…3df3backed Yes | 2c | 20,510$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…74b7backed Yes | 0c | 20,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae4…fc06backed Yes | 0c | 20,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 2c | 20,320$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.85 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacdb…51c0backed Yes | 1c | 20,293$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa30…47ccbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 19,863$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7a…3c0cbacked Yes | 3c | 19,784$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 1c | 19,728$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.49 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6d…00b0backed Yes | 0c | 19,576$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…b7dfbacked Yes | 2c | 19,257$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…1816backed Yes | 4c | 18,934$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67cb…0569backed Yes | 0c | 18,512$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0b…5c62backed Yes | 2c | 18,465$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…c54dbacked Yes | 1c | 18,366$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf415…2aaebacked Yes | 1c | 18,332$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee6a…1d26backed Yes | 3c | 18,003$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd304…5130backed Yes | 3c | 17,969$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?this page
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.