TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x77fc…0eac

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
286
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Serie A, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 56 out of 100; worst NBA at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10518.1%19 W · 86 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 105 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+528.9%+$420.5
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.9
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.67
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$559.98
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,019.95
Australia vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,056Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+52%+$1,589.75
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,289.99
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+84.3%+$426.66
Spain vs. Austria: Spain O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$580
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$241.9
Spain vs. Austria: Spain O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$491Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$491.39
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Austria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,621Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,620.9
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)backed Senegal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$540
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$580
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.8
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,060Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,059.99
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$420
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$1,400
Showing 25 of 105 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT5453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$94.9
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)backed 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$92
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.5
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.5
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$96
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$221.25
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$78
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5)backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$71.5
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$122
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)backed 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$138
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$68
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$106
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$114
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$58
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$80.58
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5)backed BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$123
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.91
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.65
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.5
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.97
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.46
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.59
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.76
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.39
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.75
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$568Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$567.7
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$5,378Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$2,711
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$6,545Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+51.1%+$3,344.09
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.69
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.36
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$923Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$922.51
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,622Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+37.3%+$605.43
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$7,558Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$4,453.03
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.44
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-54.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.52
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.98
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.13
Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 110.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.32
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$40.7
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.32
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Spread: Rockets (-8.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.38
Derrick White: Points O/U 13.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 110.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 20.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.02
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$41.42
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Grigor Dimitrovbacked Lorenzo Giustino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US Open, Qualification ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Kei Nishikoribacked Sebastian Ofner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.76
Cincinnati Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Filsbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$848Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$847.77
Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+150%+$1,800
Cincinnati Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Jessica Pegulabacked Amanda Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,700
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,275Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+135.3%+$1,725
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreevabacked Mirra Andreeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$704Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$896
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$128
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Rafael Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tienbacked Learner Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)backed Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Roland Garros WTA: Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrovabacked Camila Osorio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$94
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Stefanos Tsitsipas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$54.92
All 14 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.96
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.32
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.15
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+510.9%+$131.21
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.68
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+613%+$129.99
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
All 12 picks, newest first.
La Ligalast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)backed Club Atlético de Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$780
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$111
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$106
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.65
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$43.5
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+150%+$120
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$102
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.5
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$111
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-08-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$1,919.99
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$96
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.5
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$106
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.5
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$88.5
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$116
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Manchester City FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.25
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.03
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.83
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.36
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.05
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.24
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.84
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.96
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.3
All 9 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick54cpaid-61%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.5
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.96
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$38.98
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.75
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.12
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.2
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.97
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$12.28
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.79
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+128%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Marcus Buchecha · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2backed Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$128
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.