TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$410,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $410,567 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c18,395$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.02983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c15,709$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.931455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x115a…e4a6backed Yes4c13,075$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.46263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1208…d5fdbacked Yes2c9,484$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes1c7,777$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.991216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes2c7,721$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.33013.3%4 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes10c6,190$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.8629926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes4c6,116$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes13c6,058$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.617839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f54…e40abacked Yes2c4,588$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes4c4,584$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.453938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd22d…a49cbacked Yes2c4,285$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes8c4,211$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.1917821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c43…e2a4backed Yes1c3,812$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c3,039$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.852013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09aa…bdb6backed Yes1c3,024$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37140%0 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes16c2,961$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.1948236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes2c2,959$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010331.1%32 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa48f…57d1backed Yes2c2,711$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c79…14e4backed Yes1c2,656$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf335…2888backed Yes1c2,476$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d1…7009backed Yes1c2,351$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0b0…bad9backed Yes1c2,281$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6463…e8fdbacked Yes2c2,202$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf664…8679backed Yes1c2,197$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c2,186$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.622042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes1c2,171$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6519440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c2,168$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4410%0 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfee…12d5backed Yes1c2,142$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x246d…3364backed Yes1c2,110$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Yes5c2,104$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.195529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1762…c83ebacked Yes2c2,096$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd4…c0febacked Yes7c2,041$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471625%4 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d11…855bbacked Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-84.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes12c1,961$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.214434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd103…dc55backed Yes1c1,816$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22170%0 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f12…1164backed Yes2c1,653$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes1c1,601$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x284d…8ee0backed Yes2c1,574$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,572$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.891,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd093…e2dbbacked Yes1c1,566$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes1c1,549$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes3c1,473$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.952828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…edacbacked Yes6c1,468$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4891…993cbacked Yes1c1,464$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes7c1,417$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.67136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes3c1,389$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2733123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes15c1,380$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3170%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8e…39b0backed Yes2c1,369$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f3…0a43backed Yes1c1,364$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe04b…c716backed Yes1c1,344$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba43…5281backed Yes2c1,288$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,266$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.422781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4878…5760backed Yes1c1,177$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c1,096$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.12490%0 W · 49 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes3c1,089$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6413…1c54backed Yes7c1,080$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e5…1fa9backed Yes1c1,052$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc3…6fb6backed Yes2c1,038$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…3786backed Yes2c1,029$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcff9…2d02backed Yes1c1,026$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ab…ad9abacked Yes1c1,016$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x314c…6cbebacked Yes2c1,013$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Yes12c984.82$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.525523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c15…443fbacked Yes1c980$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c1…4e0ebacked Yes1c964$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…bfd4backed Yes1c958$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f5…75c4backed Yes1c927$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e2…a8b0backed Yes1c925.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28be…99d4backed Yes1c920.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed26…7f28backed Yes1c896$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bd…8935backed Yes1c881$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5d…ff43backed Yes1c873$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89db…00a7backed Yes2c873$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d6…fb56backed Yes1c853$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c842.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8190%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef10…1d95backed Yes1c840$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab7a…3d5bbacked Yes2c831.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes1c826.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.69736.8%5 W · 68 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes17c821$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9723751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c11…9bc6backed Yes2c812.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c803.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d6…e2e7backed Yes2c760.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes7c749.73$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.12614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc15…64c2backed Yes2c749$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c742.51$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.61549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa749…6a65backed Yes28c742$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.241650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f0f…cb20backed Yes6c740.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b0…d788backed Yes3c737.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2180%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeee…39a6backed Yes2c729$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x620f…98bfbacked Yes2c718$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e1c…8247backed Yes2c718$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes2c704$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.225612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x102b…e7d2backed Yes2c700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc44…4b63backed Yes2c700$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb698…b8efbacked Yes3c673$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3f…244ebacked Yes3c667$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9a…80a3backed Yes2c651$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes8c644.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.78746.8%5 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.