TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$244,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,967 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c18,820$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.21455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c14,699$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes1c12,528$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.942626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes2c11,852$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.832611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes4c8,344$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.6133123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes1c7,778$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0119440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes0c6,721$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes1c6,666$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.661216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes8c6,039$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.5117821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes5c4,968$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.16160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes9c4,952$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.533420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee37…89febacked Yes5c4,430$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.451040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes4c4,020$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes3c3,485$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.82828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x529f…ffd4backed Yes1c3,288$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3879…bc77backed Yes1c2,737$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c2,693$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.482013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x314c…6cbebacked Yes1c2,615$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1210…53c3backed Yes6c2,500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+267.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…01f1backed Yes2c2,368$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes3c2,367$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.374650%23 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2511…98f4backed Yes5c2,360$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c2,243$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.821549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a38…6e55backed Yes1c2,237$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0e…57bebacked Yes1c2,166$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.97100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263f…a477backed Yes4c2,117$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f2…8c44backed Yes2c2,085$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes7c1,989$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x14e2…a8b0backed Yes1c1,970$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c1,915$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.162042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Yes6c1,915$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.945523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa644…9f89backed Yes1c1,796$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f2b…8775backed Yes4c1,725$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes2c1,687$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.462920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a24…65c9backed Yes1c1,632$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,613$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.481,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54f1…c219backed Yes1c1,539$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,490$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.642781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd14…0bb1backed Yes1c1,442$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e8…58dcbacked Yes1c1,370$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefcd…f539backed Yes1c1,331$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2a…c387backed Yes2c1,318$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c1,278$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.271231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd3…2e8ebacked Yes1c1,273$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c99…ff08backed Yes1c1,255$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e84…b880backed Yes2c1,252$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x528f…b5f5backed Yes1c1,239$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f2a…9316backed Yes1c1,229$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ef…bff2backed Yes9c1,200$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf435…ae2abacked Yes2c1,175$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x743e…1bacbacked Yes2c1,112$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09aa…bdb6backed Yes1c1,092$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12140%0 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc2d…1295backed Yes1c1,065$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes2c1,057$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes2c1,028$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-78.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes12c1,009$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6548236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes6c1,008$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8923741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5883…c532backed Yes2c996$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes7c967.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af0…e3d6backed Yes2c957$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d6…fb56backed Yes2c909$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…9684backed Yes2c892$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…4c0bbacked Yes2c850$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd570…b90abacked Yes3c842$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.581822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b7e…d0f7backed Yes2c842$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes6c800$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.21225%3 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed Yes6c796.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes1c777.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.811225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff7…94d5backed Yes7c735.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes2c717.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes8c706.39$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.08267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-78.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5d…31b9backed Yes2c697.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.771643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes3c669.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.593517.1%6 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c667.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.852119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes3c659.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.742437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79da…7742backed Yes5c656.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2db…9070backed Yes3c618.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11c9…232cbacked Yes2c589.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf1…20cbbacked Yes13c581.59$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes6c558.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.571164.3%5 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes6c527.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.01812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick6cpaid+131.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c515$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176015%9 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb36b…7804backed Yes6c500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47ab…ed23backed Yes5c499.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes6c498.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.42733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x328a…30c9backed Yes6c490$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.08911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd061…1aafbacked Yes6c479.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes18c450.8$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7657backed Yes5c447.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes13c446$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.64827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes7c438.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.92746.8%5 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes3c436.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3890%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed Yes2c432.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.281414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-80.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d6d…c063backed Yes4c432.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes6c424.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.811114.5%5 W · 106 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd30…6cb2backed Yes5c423.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.14825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b7…ebe9backed Yes3c415.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda6a…5532backed Yes2c409.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.428528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked Yes13c392.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.462236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.