TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5acd…c079

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Stocks, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 52 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-80.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.55
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.49
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.03
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.27
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$49.3
Will Frankenstein win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.02
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$135
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.28
Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.13
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30.08
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12.05
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$116.59
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+26.1%+$70.48
All 14 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-87.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.29
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$963Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+38.3%+$368.58
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$465Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$464.9
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$85.99
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$28.96
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$16.38
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$343.42
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$627.75
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$97.04
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$4,000
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$997Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$997.49
All 11 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST90%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$88.73
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.91
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.06
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.74
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$119.81
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.99
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$240.19
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51.84
All 9 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-69.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+117.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$443Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$443.08
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+334.8%+$303.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.01
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,780Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+38.3%+$681.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$14.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$22.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.47
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.