AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd947403a5eae117d6fe0bf737f2d279c89dddc495dc7d2eb198accd1ecd07cc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,284,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $825,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,284,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 264,300$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.96 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 0c | 50,083$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e10…d407backed Yes | 0c | 35,833$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 25,219$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 24,401$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 24,216$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…ae8cbacked Yes | 0c | 22,592$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 20,531$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd497…cf2dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…5d22backed Yes | 0c | 17,829$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 0c | 16,872$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,842$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,779$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,127$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 15,805$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44a…4cbdbacked Yes | 0c | 15,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked Yes | 0c | 14,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5c…14aebacked Yes | 0c | 12,832$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…5deabacked Yes | 0c | 9,999$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 0c | 9,350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 0c | 8,736$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 0c | 7,611$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…37d1backed Yes | 0c | 6,614$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 5,253$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…588abacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…2d14backed Yes | 0c | 4,846$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96d…658fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,779$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1432…3d2ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,360$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…6b39backed Yes | 0c | 3,640$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,538$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…32a7backed Yes | 1c | 2,135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.