AI · resolved market
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd34bea66b3d5850bbba37d2697059cf9ae4f5e6abb7a60a9fee41aac6e60b77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,463,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $472,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,463,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 129,849$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…df33backed Yes | 0c | 62,257$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…2494backed Yes | 0c | 60,427$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa7…06b6backed Yes | 0c | 60,047$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…7b33backed Yes | 0c | 59,686$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…ec27backed Yes | 0c | 59,607$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…3f8dbacked Yes | 0c | 59,196$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd4…788bbacked Yes | 0c | 59,148$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec5…e193backed Yes | 0c | 59,002$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…61d1backed Yes | 0c | 58,874$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x569c…5f73backed Yes | 0c | 58,864$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54a…6016backed Yes | 0c | 58,735$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9309…9223backed Yes | 0c | 58,561$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…f104backed Yes | 0c | 58,461$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…d45dbacked Yes | 0c | 58,063$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…45febacked Yes | 0c | 58,055$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…e6febacked Yes | 0c | 57,933$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…178abacked Yes | 0c | 57,786$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…27f2backed Yes | 0c | 57,692$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd5…267ebacked Yes | 0c | 57,564$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a4…cdd8backed Yes | 0c | 57,268$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…7d5fbacked Yes | 0c | 57,111$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa622…2d88backed Yes | 0c | 57,033$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeea…e34bbacked Yes | 0c | 56,895$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf394…b6f1backed Yes | 0c | 56,749$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…d53cbacked Yes | 0c | 56,716$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a6…a3bcbacked Yes | 0c | 56,310$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…947bbacked Yes | 0c | 56,257$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…1cd8backed Yes | 0c | 56,120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…10cfbacked Yes | 0c | 55,949$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ab…9d0dbacked Yes | 0c | 55,943$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…9cdcbacked Yes | 0c | 55,897$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac21…ad10backed Yes | 0c | 55,750$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…4c3fbacked Yes | 0c | 55,558$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5eb…bfa1backed Yes | 0c | 55,501$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…5064backed Yes | 0c | 55,202$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…a505backed Yes | 0c | 55,195$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0d…4afdbacked Yes | 0c | 55,090$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…d58dbacked Yes | 0c | 54,916$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…7ca1backed Yes | 0c | 54,836$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a8…9579backed Yes | 0c | 54,827$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…48e4backed Yes | 0c | 54,709$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…e0cabacked Yes | 0c | 54,576$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…aad8backed Yes | 0c | 54,412$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0170…e18dbacked Yes | 0c | 54,106$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe365…b04fbacked Yes | 0c | 54,092$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae3…07e1backed Yes | 0c | 49,913$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f2…39f2backed Yes | 0c | 49,394$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095c…de88backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd497…cf2dbacked Yes | 0c | 39,590$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes | 0c | 38,947$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…8b95backed Yes | 0c | 38,399$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…4b16backed Yes | 0c | 32,481$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…2a65backed Yes | 0c | 32,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…5173backed Yes | 0c | 30,570$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe959…7c7abacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 26,890$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,497$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,753$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,282$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…dab8backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6f…9e9abacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce90…d285backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Yes won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.