TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,462,850
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,489,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,462,850 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c95,361$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.942920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes1c51,583$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.04283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c50,664$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.661010%0 W · 101 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…5577backed Yes0c50,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e04…cb9ebacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes2c23,825$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.74922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes3c22,154$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.628815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c21,214$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.216291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c21,159$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.71754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2e…1e5bbacked Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes0c18,899$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.36010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f23…b36ebacked Yes1c16,550$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c15,566$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.572522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes1c13,477$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.522611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-34.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c12,776$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.78580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb94b…95dbbacked Yes1c11,560$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes1c10,387$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.27553.6%2 W · 53 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.98140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c9,893$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.722003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c9,267$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.132560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9da8…1b37backed Yes0c9,128$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b5…5122backed Yes1c8,121$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c7,749$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.63865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes1c7,613$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4190%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e0e…2d99backed Yes0c7,551$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb5…a0b4backed Yes0c7,503$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes1c7,409$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.763935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+94.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0420…3a51backed Yes0c7,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c6,570$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.372792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c6,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes0c6,417$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.04700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b9…de55backed Yes4c6,310$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.81128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed Yes2c6,267$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.18616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-69.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Yes1c6,120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.31827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-50.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c9…9fcbbacked Yes3c5,997$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c5,697$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes2c5,600$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.37250%0 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x939b…9cd7backed Yes1c5,135$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.171618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c5,096$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.29870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9abb…5db6backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c4,955$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.283042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c4,904$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.93850%0 W · 85 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c4,805$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5410126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes1c4,705$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.94244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-94.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c4,333$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6918311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes14c4,168$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.61931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes1c3,569$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.852729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81a3…66a5backed Yes3c3,555$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ce6…de1fbacked Yes0c3,491$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x753f…2a5fbacked Yes1c3,125$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c1…24d3backed Yes2c2,948$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes1c2,896$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.482114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-78.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x348f…709dbacked Yes2c2,889$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c2,737$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.16724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes2c2,521$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.756010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes1c2,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6302…7917backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes1c2,497$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.152110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc96d…658fbacked Yes6c2,052$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5584…6e2abacked Yes2c2,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422010%2 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes1c1,898$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bbf…3f4bbacked Yes3c1,562$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b35…a23cbacked Yes9c1,508$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c2…735dbacked Yes1c1,449$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes2c1,382$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1728826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ae…2969backed Yes1c1,230$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,225$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.071,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes2c1,129$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.74545.6%3 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes6c1,071$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.254316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0775…d808backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x668d…97d2backed Yes13c999.85$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.984944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e9f…be06backed Yes1c950$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x561c…e0fdbacked Yes1c935$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes2c916.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-74.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes3c908.82$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7918323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes5c899.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid+8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3066…6895backed Yes2c884.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…621fbacked Yes2c849.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…54dcbacked Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d86…d0a2backed Yes13c824$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes3c800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a15…7036backed Yes5c700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd2b…ebedbacked Yes13c670$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf058…2f88backed Yes2c637.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ed…ecf7backed Yes2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x387e…56a5backed Yes7c499.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes14c494.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.370%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes3c460$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9480%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x589f…4046backed Yes4c452.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b05…a5c3backed Yes3c399.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7866…8645backed Yes3c334.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ec…2ba2backed Yes5c317.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f7…6e44backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157132.4%23 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd788…f375backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes12c300$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379447.9%45 W · 49 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes4c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55825.9%15 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes14c299.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422548%12 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.