TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,568,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,104,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,568,733 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4e04…cb9ebacked No0c42,581$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c34,124$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.962522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No4c32,788$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.952729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2d…8bbcbacked No2c30,349$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec10…bbc7backed No7c28,448$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c26,969$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.072560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No4c23,297$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.51553.6%2 W · 53 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No3c19,257$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.19865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked No3c17,663$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.171735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c17,546$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.076291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed No0c17,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed No2c16,748$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.952611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-34.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c15,289$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.6426312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No4c14,680$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.756010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f23…b36ebacked No4c14,628$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.0380%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c13,943$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.092792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c13,412$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.143042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No5c11,387$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.664325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3420…300bbacked No10c10,511$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked No3c10,141$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.82922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No4c10,134$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.45850%0 W · 85 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No5c10,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.998815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No7c9,999$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.92616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No4c9,607$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.27870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42bb…9edabacked No1c9,514$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.04520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+84.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No1c8,900$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.42003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed No3c8,573$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.12147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-84.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No4c7,880$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.95545.6%3 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x48c4…7e92backed No1c7,617$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e55…8ffdbacked No4c7,177$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.0290%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No4c7,155$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.933627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No1c6,222$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked No3c5,576$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.25120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No2c5,458$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0325…16e7backed No3c5,088$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.53425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No3c5,006$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.4718311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed No6c5,000$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.62119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-83.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No15c5,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.971931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No7c5,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.9810426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No1c4,937$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.42767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No5c4,852$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.02724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No6c4,619$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.2615452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf49e…725cbacked No0c4,610$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e0…ad22backed No2c4,292$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No5c4,000$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.118923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed No2c3,900$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.66010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c3,679$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.111,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c3,625$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No8c3,436$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.862913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac8…d352backed No1c3,420$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No10c3,047$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.118122.2%18 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57b8…0e90backed No3c3,015$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed No5c2,845$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.61323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-63.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4146…82fdbacked No4c2,801$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No4c2,679$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.473212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No3c2,638$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4425731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78ae…2969backed No5c2,521$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.37110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No3c2,512$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.552110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dff…1f35backed No5c2,500$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.53318.2%6 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-66.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb187…bbe1backed No6c2,491$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No3c2,458$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1928826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce8…2a73backed No5c2,425$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd069…61f0backed No4c2,416$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3903…e027backed No3c2,414$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed No5c2,145$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc612…7d6dbacked No5c2,125$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked No4c2,034$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.32175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed No4c1,998$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No2c1,830$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.04731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ad…297abacked No2c1,800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7a…d37ebacked No1c1,800$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.991216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-67.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No9c1,790$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1d2…c588backed No4c1,778$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No6c1,723$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.272977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed No4c1,700$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-60.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No5c1,677$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.282821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-59.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5529backed No9c1,674$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0396…2039backed No1c1,503$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked No6c1,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4013…4d70backed No3c1,471$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+285.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6605…cda1backed No4c1,440$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x173e…2d86backed No3c1,431$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ab…97a4backed No3c1,421$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x413f…7928backed No4c1,330$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed Yes79c1,326$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.491968.4%13 W · 6 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick40cpaid+93.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0ad7…0971backed No1c1,311$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.07170%0 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd80…7e2cbacked No2c1,200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc7c…c08ebacked No8c1,200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.991723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid+8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No7c1,117$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.168543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No7c1,111$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.772638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No7c1,100$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.420148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e0…0720backed No4c1,079$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187a…2798backed No2c1,059$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf8…92b8backed No7c1,022$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dd4…d37abacked No3c1,008$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed No3c1,001$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2383…fef0backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x668d…97d2backed No15c999.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.