TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0b13…5957

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
201
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Commodities at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT6338.1%24 W · 39 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,001Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+80.7%+$807.82
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,024Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,024
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$451.99
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$108
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.2
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$996
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,905Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+185%+$3,524.69
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$9,415Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+423%+$39,819.5
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,807Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+164.9%+$2,980.58
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$432Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$1,968
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$840
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$491Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+103.7%+$509.01
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+103.1%+$270.03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$307.74
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,047Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,047.2
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$634Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$634.18
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$117.6
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$491.55
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$155
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+194.2%+$1,043
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.28
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,708Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+87.9%+$1,501.83
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$575.1
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2540%10 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$578Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$151.45
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,720Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+44.1%+$1,200.2
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.04
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.5
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.5
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$590Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$410
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.1
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.67
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.78
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.98
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$51
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$288
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$139.4
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,076Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$683.8
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+61.6%+$197.43
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$180.16
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+43.3%+$151
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$263.56
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+334.8%+$76.99
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$52
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+733.3%+$263.95
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$64.5
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$38.05
All 25 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$232.49
Will "Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$152.73
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$34.12
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$353.6
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$125
Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10.46
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$130
Will "Cover-Up" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+47.1%+$160
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$95
Will "Goodbye June" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will "Marty Supreme" score at least 94 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+25%+$10
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+141.5%+$134.78
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+170.3%+$74.97
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$76.32
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.62
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.6
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$694Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$693.99
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+334.8%+$307.99
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,708Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+52.2%+$892
Bill Clinton in jail by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Bill Clinton charged by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$104.61
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$813Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$812.78
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$855Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$855.32
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,039.6
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,677Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,676.53
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$559Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$559.17
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.2
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$69.21
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$133.25
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$725Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+106.9%+$775
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$147
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$103.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$671Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$670.6
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$82
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$326.6
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.01
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+284.6%+$184.99
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,042Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,042
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11,839Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11,838.79
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.95
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,715Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,714.81
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,209.11
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+42.9%+$60
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-60.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.9
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+42.9%+$14.39
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$119.5
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$67.5
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$49.9
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$69
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+75.5%+$430.18
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 8 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+290.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+681.3%+$205.91
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$1,600
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$587Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$587.32
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,605Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$844.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$458Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$457.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$120.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$44.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Los Ratones vs Karmine Corp (BO1)backed Los Ratones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$407
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.