TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,286

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12d3…53c1backed Yes3c4,612$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.352138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick24cpaid-29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x82ed…b788backed Yes24c4,006$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.853016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed Yes27c3,788$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.715822.4%13 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes9c3,371$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31833123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x110f…8f39backed No71c2,736$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.34472.7%32 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+59.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes1c2,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No32c1,953$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.042326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd19a…5b88backed No32c1,900$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2921625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed Yes68c1,194$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.923938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes26c1,114$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.248236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed Yes68c1,022$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.962441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes4c1,005$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.762955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee67…e6febacked Yes2c783$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes68c747$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.962729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed No61c727.45$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes68c620$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.62934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No70c609.02$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.776731.3%21 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c599.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.92781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes4c585$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-87.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes38c564.99$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4334651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c527.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.291,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed No32c487$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.162147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes68c475$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3231931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed No32c465$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.23151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes68c451$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.685046%23 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed Yes68c445$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.62360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes5c440.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed Yes68c418$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.242045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed No32c415$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.23063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No62c394.49$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.031,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x787a…a54dbacked Yes68c364$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.521915.8%3 W · 16 L-5.3wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-75.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No32c364$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.523641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes5c309.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.19901.1%1 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes8c306.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5817010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked No32c256$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.082458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes25c247.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4312539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No32c244$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.923432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes68c244$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.923161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked Yes68c221$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.283847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed Yes68c220$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.62828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes6c205.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.24934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked No32c205$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.43452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed No56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed Yes68c192$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.563145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf946…d542backed Yes33c183$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.63850%19 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes33c169$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.771816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-73.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c165.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.172042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c143.98$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5567232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed Yes60c140$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09be…76d5backed No32c132$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.761931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…8085backed No32c114$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.522650%13 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes68c113$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.842450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed No32c106$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.083253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa237…d59abacked Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No80c99.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.038345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25e5…6563backed No38c99.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.991921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed Yes68c98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.644025%10 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcfda…5709backed No32c98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.642334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c92.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1920850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No74c85.42$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8820668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No43c80$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75fc…ef55backed No40c69$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-58.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82c6…e6c0backed Yes60c60$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed No32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.83743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed No37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.611637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c59.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0148414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa486…790abacked Yes63c59$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3d9…72aabacked Yes63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8074…7236backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe61d…e172backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.53246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xced9…fca2backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c49.98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c0f…c1d4backed No69c46.5$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No32c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.63240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x906e…e7e6backed Yes64c41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes72c37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.59933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc10f…c7dfbacked Yes57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd5…cccebacked Yes56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0be4…b548backed No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe136…4348backed No70c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5e…8ea6backed Yes65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76bd…7281backed Yes60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62528%7 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-46.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7fb3…c770backed No80c12.57$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.