TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x90ec…62aa

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
183
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: NBA, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 57 out of 100; worst Weather at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.56
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+96.8%+$53.61
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.7
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$43.29
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.75
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.34
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37.3%+$34.26
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.48
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.09
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$62.7
Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$143.35
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$23.76
Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+31.6%+$5.52
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$62.16
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+37%+$56.43
Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+275.3%+$30.81
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$93.91
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$94.8
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$725Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.8%+$245.22
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+426.3%+$344.25
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+58.7%+$39.96
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$16.82
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$99.9
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$44.25
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT3256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.91
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$174.84
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.11
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$10.08
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.28
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$76.45
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.17
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$535Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+110.7%+$592.13
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.12
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$173.53
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+43.2%+$61.87
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$516.12
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.25
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$642Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+130.7%+$839.1
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.08
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+120.3%+$50.78
Will the Brooklyn Nets have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.1
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+78.9%+$234.17
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.7
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$36.96
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.2
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+98.3%+$196.33
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+262.9%+$75.34
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.95
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.84
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$252.54
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.55
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.82
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.9
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+31.6%+$100.56
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$64.26
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$393.96
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+376.2%+$114.55
Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+222.6%+$307.05
Will Trump say "Think about" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+69.5%+$250.92
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+334.8%+$512.05
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+63.9%+$35.1
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$202.74
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$158.78
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$59.66
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+35.6%+$19.67
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$27.3
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.03
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+72%+$47.32
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+132.6%+$40.47
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+63.9%+$9.36
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$104.37
All 24 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.08
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.23
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$60.32
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$445Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$444.88
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+354.5%+$204.36
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$88.4
Google Gemini Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+26.5%+$40.81
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110.88
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+311.7%+$342.96
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$53.34
Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$138.69
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.01
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+29.5%+$11.63
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$46.87
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$48.4
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$13.1
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10.79
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19.08
All 18 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$215
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$147.56
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.65
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$65.65
Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$31.72
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$325.97
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$69.5
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+809.1%+$383.59
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+45.6%+$26.92
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$37.55
Will Ciucu win by 0-3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+37%+$9.72
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$36.38
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$33.79
All 15 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$305.32
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.85
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.52
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$473Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+25.1%+$118.96
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$47.16
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$234.23
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$18.13
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$156.14
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+669.2%+$594.21
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30.48
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$137.5
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$182.04
Will November 2025 be the 2nd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$12.57
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+32%+$33.67
All 14 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+91.7%+$137.25
Will Denver face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$81.84
Will Mike McCoy be fired by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+28.2%+$99.44
Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Divisional Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$352.8
Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Divisional Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+78.6%+$348.92
Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Divisional Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$256.95
Will Chris Shula be the next Giants Head Coach?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$14.04
Will John Harbaugh join the Cleveland Browns prior to April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$113.9
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars be eliminated in the Divisional Round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+33.3%+$128.25
Will Myles Garrett break the NFL sack record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+42.9%+$5.73
Will Pete Carroll be fired by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+85.2%+$251.16
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$573Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$222.88
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.84
Will Yolanda Flowers win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+194.1%+$241.56
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$125.2
Will Fredrick Love win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$91.65
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$11.55
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31.05
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$41.3
All 10 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+78.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+155.1%+$333.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (-1.5)backed Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+150%+$95.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+49.3%+$21.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Texas Tech make the College Football Playoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$21.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$22.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U 158.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$263.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$233.73
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.